Many claim that 2016 was a defining year. It seemed to mark a turning point in the global political trajectory. There may be some truth in this. However, societies are complex structures and politics rarely develop in a linear manner.

The Oxford Dictionary announced that ‘post-truth’ is the international word of the year for 2016. It defined it as an adjective “relating to or denoting circumstances in which objective facts are less influential in shaping public opinion than appeals to emotion and personal belief”.

The use of this phrase gained traction following the result in favour of Brexit and the election of Donald Trump. The term is somewhat flawed since it assumes that voters are objective, rational participants in the electoral process who pay little attention to political propaganda and rhetoric.

In politics, perception and emotion often take precedence over facts. Moreover, the ‘truth’ is always perceived to be the pre­rogative of the liberal-inclined. The latter is a very dangerous assumption to make.

Established conventions, institutions and traditions were much-maligned despite there being nothing intrinsically wrong with them. Political parties provide broad platforms for various ideas and are key players in the democratic process, the media provides unofficial checks and balances, global organisations provide much-needed oversight, international institutions attempt to keep the peace and government structures provide much-needed continuity regarding policy and governance.

Their function is often carried out in an imperfect manner that falls short of general expectations. Many individuals, thus, question the motives of their decisions. However, rather than a revolt against the establishment, the events of the past year are more of a protest against the status quo.

In 2017, we are likely to expect more of the same.

Trump will be sworn in as the 45th President of the United States this month. There will be some changes that will have ripple effects globally. Protectionism is likely to make an unfortunate return. Trump has already signalled that he will try to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement. The new year might also see the introduction of tariffs on Chinese commodities.

Protectionism often leads to greater isolationism. Since the presidential campaign was largely devoid of significant policy debate, it will be hard to predict the extent of this.

Relations between the US and China are cooling. However, Trump seems to have a good relationship with Vladimir Putin. This may lead to a better rapport between Russia and the US. Alas, Trump gives mixed signals on his vision for the US’s international role. Regarding foreign policy, he remains a largely unknown quantity.

In 2017, we are likely to expect more of the same

His electoral victory also holds considerable symbolic power. He will serve as a rallying point for several political movements around Europe. In 2017, Germany, France and the Netherlands go to the polls.

In Germany, Angela Merkel is likely to win a fourth term as Chancellor. However, she will emerge from the electoral contest as a weaker figure. The Bavarian counter­­parts of her Christian Democratic Union, the Christian Social Union, have been increasingly critical of her stance towards migration. Moreover, Alternative für Deutschland will likely gain seats in the Bundestag, thereby complicating the process of coalition formation and offering a conservative opposition to Merkel’s centre-right agenda.

In France, the final contest is likely to be between François Fillon and Marine Le Pen. Both candidates hail from the right; Fillon is a Thatcherite alternative to Le Pen’s more belligerent populism.

In the Netherlands, the Party for Freedom, led by Geert Wilders, is likely to emerge as the largest party. However, he might find it difficult to form an effective governing coalition.

Debates surrounding migration and terrorism will dominate these elections. The contenders will also be mindful of the general disgruntlement towards the establishment, the disenfranchisement of certain segments from political processes and the failure of previous governments to address such concerns.

The incoming administrations will need to deal with a very different European Union.

British Prime Minister Theresa May pledged to trigger Article 50 by the end of March. This is likely to lead to further soul-searching by the EU-27. Nonetheless, these attempts will largely be futile. Such exercises have, so far, yielded nothing significant or noteworthy. Europe’s geopolitical significance will continue to be sidelined by the importance of the Pacific. This is now the most significant global geopolitical hotspot. China and the US – the world’s largest economies – have a vital say in the region. The growing tensions between the two countries do not bode well. The situation isfurther exacerbated by two major territorial conflicts: one in the South China Sea and the other between Russia and Japan over the Kuril Islands.

The situation on the Korean peninsula looks grim. Uncertainty looms in South Korea following the impeachment of President Park Geun-Hye. Kim Jong-Un, North Korea’s secretive leader, continues his pursuit of nuclear weapons, thereby threatening the stability of the region.

In the Philippines, its populist socialist President, Rodrigo Duterte, attracted international opprobrium following claims of his participation in extra-judicial killings.

For the sake of regional stability, China and the US will need to find some common ground.

Any attempts to play down conflicts or to make the global situation seem any less hopeless will be futile. The role and the influence of President Trump will be central to several of these issues. Once his inauguration ceremony is over, he might come to realise that he has inherited a poisoned chalice.

andre.deb@gmail.com

André DeBattista is an independent researcher in politics and international relations.

Sign up to our free newsletters

Get the best updates straight to your inbox:
Please select at least one mailing list.

You can unsubscribe at any time by clicking the link in the footer of our emails. We use Mailchimp as our marketing platform. By subscribing, you acknowledge that your information will be transferred to Mailchimp for processing.