How on earth, we all thought, could someone who is so cavalier with the truth, so scornful of policy detail, so sexist, brazen and shameless a huckster as Donald Trump even presume to hold the presidency of the United States? President-elect Trump was propelled to the White House by a white, working class backlash – a ‘whitelash’ – against the so-called Washington elite.
On November 9, the world awoke to the stunning news of his victory (an overwhelming win in terms of the electoral college, though forecast to be some two million votes behind in the popular vote) in the most dramatic insurgency in American political history – a political earthquake.
The next president of the United States and leader of the free world has a notoriously short attention span, a total lack of curiosity about other countries and cultures, absolutely no grasp of the practical exigencies of governance, nor the patience or self-discipline when others resist his demands. He is, quite simply, temperamentally unsuited to hold the office of president.
With roughly half the US, and much of the rest of the free world forecasting that a Trump presidency will be a global catastrophe, it is worth recalling however one of the odder aspects of American elections. The doomsayers have frequently been wrong, and sometimes spectacularly so.
Thomas Jefferson took office in 1800 amid predictions that he would plunge the US into disaster. He turned out to be one of the country’s greatest presidents. Similar doom-laden language was used about the elections of Andrew Jackson, Abraham Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan. All were proved wrong.
It is possible of course that Trump will start a culture war, a trade war and a nuclear war. But it also just possible that he will preside over a competent administration. First impressions count.
There are a few good reasons to think that a Trump presidency may not prove as awful as many – including this columnist – think. He has appeared reckless on the campaign trail. But already he is showing pragmatism as he prepares for power and may be back-tracking on some of his rash campaign assertions. There is an authoritarian Trump. But there is also a deal-making Trump.
He has begun to water down his more outlandish threats. He has said he will keep some parts of Obamacare. He has stopped talking about imposing a 45 per cent tariff on Chinese imports. He has sent out conflicting signals about the fate of the estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants in the US. We must hope that these first signs that realpolitik will trump rhetoric are sustained after January 20 next year.
Trump is beginning to surround himself with reasonably sensible people – many of whom are much-reviled Washington insiders like his chief of staff, although others, like his chief strategist are racist, fascist and misogynistic. Nevertheless, many who shunned him during the campaign are suddenly fired with ambition to serve him.
What kind of president could the US expect from a candidate who has said that “everything is negotiable”? His campaign has been driven by three principal complaints. That US military might is taken for granted by its free-loading allies. That the US has signed trade deals that harm its middle and working classes. And that immigrants are taking jobs and bringing crime.
The doomsayers have frequently been wrong, and sometimes spectacularly so
On the day of his inauguration he has promised to execute what has been termed the “First Day Project”, a session where he would spend hours signing documents “to erase the Obama presidency”. He could, with a stroke of his pen, undo dozens of executive orders signed by President Obama. He could withdraw the US from the Paris climate change agreement, unravel the Iran nuclear deal and suspend a scheme that brings Syrian refugees to the US. He could task officials with drafting trade cases against China – potentially the first salvo in an epic trade war.
The First Hundred Days will be marked by whirlwind activity. He has promised to expel about two million undocumented immigrants and cancel visas to countries that refuse to take them back. He could order a ban on Muslims entering the country without congressional approval, though this will almost certainly be contested in court. He and his vice-president, Mike Pence, who is being given wide-ranging responsibilities, would begin interviewing candidates for a vacancy on the Supreme Court – a decision that could shape issues such as abortion and gun control for the next generation.
His hundred-day action plan “to make America great again” includes measures “to clean up the corruption and special interest collusion in Washington”. He has promised to finalise a design for a one thousand-mile long wall along the Mexican border, with Mexico paying for the project. No other proposal was more firmly embedded in his candidacy, but he now appears to be hedging his promises. The “impenetrable, physical, tall, powerful, beautiful wall” Trump promised to build along the Mexico border could partly be a fence, he has now admitted.
On trade, he has promised either to renegotiate or to leave the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), a pact with Canada and Mexico. He plans to announce the US withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a large Asian deal designed to counter the rise of China, as well as to withdraw from the negotiations for a Trans-Atlantic Trade Treaty with the European Union.
Some of the biggest uncertainties arise over foreign policy. He is the first commander-in-chief with no experience in public office or of top military command. He has hinted at warmer relations with Russia. He has vowed to invest heavily in the military to wipe out what remains of Daesh (so-called Islamic State). He has argued that friendly nations, including Europe and Japan, should contribute to the upkeep of US military forces. He has also said that he might not come to the aid of Nato countries which have not paid their full dues, threatening to undermine a key tenet of the treaty.
President-elect Trump has declined to detail his plans to defeat ISIS except to say he would “bomb the s***” out of the jihadist group’s oil dealings. He has hinted at deploying 30,000 troops to the Middle East and suggested that he would give Russia more space to exert its influence. But any new leverage gained through better personal relations must be used to drive home the message that Putin’s military adventurism in the Middle East, Ukraine and Eastern Europe will not go unchallenged.
The idea that Trump’s election is the end of US democracy or the start of fascism is patent nonsense. Admittedly, there are still some horrendous policy promises, of which trade protectionism and his attitude to the Western defence alliance are the most worrying. If he really does kill NAFTA as well as the Trans-Pacific and Trans-Atlantic trade treaties and imposes tariffs, he will assuredly cause a recession that will hurt blue-collar workers in the rust belt more than free trade ever did. And he might bring down the world economy.
As to the NATO Alliance, the consequences for world peace and European defence of any isolationism by the US are deeply worrying. This is a subject to which I shall return.
As the Chinese curse has it: “May you live in interesting times.”