A week has gone by since the US presidential elections, and the markets have seemingly not yet settled down and come to terms with the outcome.Not so much so with the outcome per se however, that clearly caught the market unawares and possibly even a handful of people within the Trump camp too were surprised with the final result of last week's election.
Let's face it. The Presidential elections in the US are a big deal and the euphoria and fuss about its outcome is understandable. One of the powerhouses in the world global economy, both in terms of relevance and economic activity, coupled with the political strength makes the role of the US president one of the most strategically important worldwide.
To say that markets have been topsy-turvy ever since Trump emerged victorious is a bit of an understatement. What surprised most is however the way markets reacted. After initial indications of weakness at the market open last Wednesday, risk on mode swiftly crept in to investor's trading activity; equity markets rallied, the US dollar strengthened and sovereign bonds sold off. True, equities have retreated somewhat over the past couple of sessions but the dollar has proven its worth as Trump’s pro-business policies pushed the currency towards new year-to-date highs against major Emerging Market currencies.
True, equities have retreated somewhat over the past couple of sessions but the dollar has proven its worth as Trump’s pro-business policies pushed the currency towards new year-to-date highs against major Emerging Market currencies.
What is certain is that global politicians and market participants need to move on. And they need to begin coming to terms with the result. What shape are relations between the US and countries such as China, Russia and Mexico, to name a few, are going to take? What political implications will Trump's pre-electoral statements have on relationships with its trading partners?
From a market perspective, what are the ramifications of having Trump as president on the US economy and global economic activity? It is no great secret that Trump's policies are pro-business and investor friendly, which in theory can partially explain the large uptick in yields on long-dated bonds of late (inflation is expected to rise under Trump further strengthening the case of a rise in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve) but more importantly it is the consumption pattern and health of the US consumer which matters most in the initial months of the new legislature.
We have already started to read that Trump could backtrack on his pre-electoral promises, like on for example healthcare, which could continue to send out mixed signals to the markets as it will mean that more uncertainty could be on the cards. Additional uncertainty could continue to increase over the coming weeks. We have got yet another two key central bank meetings in December as well as the Italian referendum all within the span of three weeks and have got the potential to derail markets once again.
Two key central bank meetings in December as well as the Italian referendum are all yet to take place, all within the span of three weeks, and have got the potential to derail markets once again.
So whilst investors and asset managers will be gradually positioning their portfolios heading into these key events whilst keeping their target initial asset allocation in 2017 in mind (trading activity is generally thin during the month of December), their greatest challenge will be to try and end December relatively unscathed.
2016 has clearly been the year of the underdog. With Leicester City winning the Premier League to Brexit, and most recently Trump's victory, we can safely say that most polls have gone haywire (in 2016). In hindsight it is easy to say that they got it all wrong and that polls must be treated for what they are and should not be given that much prominence, however we must admit that in the past they have served as strong indicators.
If there is a lesson to be learned from this year, I'd say that no outcome, irrespective of how logical or how much sense it could make to us, or how slim the chances are, can ever be ruled out or taken for granted. We've seen it in sporting events but also within the political scene and central bank activity. So whilst the market is already pricing in the outcomes of the 3 key events mentioned above, and hoping for the best (in the sense that outcomes reflect general market consensus), we know all too well that living in hope will no longer suffice and that it is imperative to be prepared, well equipped and positioned for the unthinkable and unimaginable.
This article was issued by Mark Vella, Investment Manager at Calamatta Cuschieri. For more information visit, www.cc.com.mt . The information, views and opinions provided in this article are being provided solely for educational and informational purposes and should not be construed as investment advice, advice concerning particular investments or investment decisions, or tax or legal advice. Calamatta Cuschieri Investment Services Ltd has not verified and consequently neither warrants the accuracy nor the veracity of any information, views or opinions appearing on this website.