Over the past ten years, the Rolex Middle Sea Race Trophy has been won by yachts as large as 86ft and as small as 40ft.
Unsurprisingly, the weather plays a huge part in deciding the winner. Changes in wind strength, direction and currents create advantages and disadvantages.
The ever-changing scenario creates a very complicated picture, especially when boats are on different parts of the course.
The overall winner of the 2016 Rolex Middle Sea Race, starting this morning, is not necessarily the first to cross the finish line. The winner is decided using the IRC rating system, which is used for all of the major offshore races throughout the world.
Yachts have their elapsed time corrected according to their potential speed. This gives every yacht a fair chance of winning the overall prize.
Sophisticated routing software programmes can estimate the finish time of each yacht. The software uses the predicted wind conditions and combines that with the predicted speed of the yachts, giving an estimated finish time.
George David’s Rambler 88 is the hot favourite to take mono-hull line honours for the second year in succession.
On paper, none of the fleet should be able to match the American maxi for speed. The weather conditions this year look very similar to 2015, when Rambler 88 took line honours completing the course in just over 64 hours.
Looking at a range of predictions through the fleet, this may be quick enough to achieve ‘the double’ – line honours and the overall win after IRC time correction.
“It looks similar to last year but in this race you have to expect anything,” Rambler 88 Project Manager Mick Harvey said.
“Probably, the biggest difference for Rambler this year, is that the boat is lighter and we are also racing without spinnakers, which has reduced our rating.”
Artie’s chances
Lee Satariano’s J/122 Artie has been the most successful yacht in the last ten years, winning overall on two occasions (2011 and 2014).
Looking at Artie’s predicted elapsed time of 114 hours, the Maltese boat will be a long way behind Rambler 88 on the water, but after IRC time correction, the result could be very close indeed.
Christian Ripard has been at the heart of Artie’s two victories, as tactician. He has won the race, as owner or tactician, five times.
“The weather looks like it will suit a slightly bigger and more high performance boat than Artie,” Ripard reckoned.
“It is looking light especially at the start, and in this race, boats will be side by side, and one will get a puff of wind and be gone, while the other is just in the wrong place and remains trapped. This is going to be a race all about thinking it out – and to be honest – getting a bit of luck.”
Since 2005, the race has been won overall by a TP52 on three occasions, including last year’s win by Michele Galli’s B2.
This year, two TP52s will be taking part – Pablo Garriga’s Audax Energia (Spain) and Team Van Uden Performance Yacht Racing, skippered by Dutchman Patrick van t’Hoff.
Audax Energia should be the quickest of the pair, as the 2006 Botin Carkeek design was built for light-airs sailing. Routing software predicts that Audax Energia should complete the race in 91 hours, which would equate to a similar time to Artie and Rambler 88 after IRC time correction.
There are four Xp-44 yachts racing this year. Although the design has not won the race overall, teams have come pretty close on several occasions.
Josef Schultheis and Timmy Camilleri’s Xp-act was second overall in 2014, and virtually the same crew will be racing again this year.
“The Xp-44s have often done well in this race, so you have to say the yacht suits the conditions and this race course,” Xp-act crew member Barry Hurley said.
“Looking at this year’s race, the first crucial point looks to be on the first night as we approach the southeast corner of Sicily. There is likely to be very little wind in the shadow of Mount Etna.
“The decision is whether to go inshore or offshore, looking for breeze. Getting the strategy right on the first night could be a crucial moment in the race.”
The Rolex MSR is notoriously hard to fathom, which is one of the compelling reasons that it proves so popular with sailors from all over the world.
This year the weather scenario does not seem to favour any particular type of yacht. This will mean that the team that performs the best and, perhaps, has the biggest slice of luck will lift the trophy.
■ The 37th Rolex MSR sets off from the Grand Harbour today at 11am.