Relations between Russia and the US (and Europe) deteriorated to a new low this week, partly because of Moscow’s relentless bombing of civilians and hospitals in Aleppo, Syria, but also because of a continuing trend by President Vladimir Putin to adopt a much more antagonistic foreign policy.
A number of developments in US-Russia bilateral relations, as well as Russian violations of European airspace – which have been taken place far too often – are very worrying. It is no exaggeration to say that the number one foreign policy priority of the next US President, hopefully Hillary Clinton, will be to reassess relations with Moscow and how to best deal with Vladimir Putin.
At the beginning of the week Mr Putin suspended an agreement with the US on the disposal of surplus weapons-grade plutonium. Under a deal signed in 2000 both sides agreed to destroy 34 tonnes of plutonium by burning it in reactors. According to the US State Department the combined 68 tonnes of plutonium is enough material for 17,000 nuclear weapons. This is certainly of concern and does not augur well for future nuclear co-operation between the two sides.
Engagement with Russia is always necessary, but so is its containment
Almost at the same time of Mr Putin’s plutonium announcement the US suspended direct talks with Russia over Syria, accusing Moscow and the Syrian government of intensifying attacks against civilians, particularly in Aleppo. US Secretary of State John Kerry said both Russia and the regime in Damascus should be investigated for war crimes. The fact that Washington and Moscow are no longer talking over Syria is tragic, as only they can bring about a political settlement in this conflict, although it has to be stated that only Russia has any real clout over the Assad regime.
I have no doubt at all that Mr Putin is taking advantage of the fact that the Obama administration is coming to an end and that Washington will not want to risk confrontation with Moscow in Syria with a presidential election round the corner. The period between the election and the inauguration of the next President is also one where US diplomacy is probably at its weakest, so Mr Putin knows that from now until late January he will not encounter much resistance from the US.
This explains Russia’s rush to retake Aleppo before Mr Obama leaves office; such a victory will greatly strengthen the Syrian government’s hands in future possible negotiations involving the US. Moscow continued to show its long-term commitment to the Syrian government this week and sent an S-300 air defence missile system to its naval base in the port of Tartus. Soon after the Russian Parliament voted to ratify a treaty allowing Russian troops to stay in Syria indefinitely, and making the air base in Latakia permanent.
In another development US officials formally accused Russia of cyber-attacks against political organisations in order “to interfere with the US election”. The Department of Homeland Security said that recent hacked e-mails were “consistent with the methods and motivation of Russia-directed efforts”. This is a very serious allegation and one which could have far-reaching negative consequences for US-Russian relations.
Meanwhile Estonia and Finland both reported that Russian jets violated their airspace this week. Unfortunately, this is becoming a habit by the Russians and shows just how provocative they have become under Mr Putin. It also emerged this week that two Russian Blackjack bombers were intercepted by fighter jets from Norway, the UK, France and Spain on September 22 as they flew from the direction of Norway to northern Spain and back.
Russia is an important member of the international community and has a key role to play in maintaining peace and stability. Unfortunately its blind support for the Assad regime in Syria has clouded its judgement when it comes to its overall foreign policy and this has contributed to more instability and tension in world. Engagement with Russia is always necessary, but so is its containment, as Mr Putin is always pushing to see how far he can get. This is something the next US President will have to keep in mind.