The image of Omran Daqneesh, the five-year-old Syrian boy, sitting alone in an ambulance, his face covered in blood and dust, has once again highlighted the savage nature of the conflict in Syria. Omran was rescued from a building after an airstrike in Aleppo, the city which has come to symbolise the immense suffering of the Syrian people. The airstrike was carried out by Russia or Syrian government forces.
According to the United Nations, half a million Syrians have been killed in this conflict, which has been going on for over five years. Half the entire population of Syria has been displaced, either internally or externally. Millions of Syrians are living in refugee camps in Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon, and to a lesser extent in Iraq and Egypt. About one million Syrians have fled to Europe, causing a migration crisis in a number of European countries.
Syria is on the verge of becoming a failed State and could soon end up like Somalia, with no hope to returning to any semblance of normality for a very long time if no breakthrough on the political or diplomatic front takes place soon. This is a very complicated conflict, its gets more and more complicated every day, and its represents a huge failure of the international community.
The regime of Bashar al-Assad, which is supported by Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, has carried out numerous war crimes, including the relentless bombing of civilians and hospitals in areas under rebel control. And Amnesty International’s latest report on Syria’s prison system, published a few days ago, makes very grim reading.
According to Amnesty, 17,723 people died in Assad’s prisons between March of 2011 and December of 2015, many of them as a result of torture. But that’s not all: an additional 65,000 people have “vanished” after being taken into custody. The report says that “the number of confirmed deaths in custody would substantially increase” if the fate of these prisoners was known.
The US, Turkey and some of the Gulf States support various rebel movements, ranging from the Free Syrian Army, to the Kurds (they are not supported by Turkey), to a number of Islamist movements. In between all this there is the so-called Islamic State, the savage and primitive jihadist movement that has carved out territory in both Syria and Iraq to form its ‘caliphate’ – where it has committed genocide and crimes against humanity against thousands of people, including women and children.
It is true that the war against Islamic State is being won in both Syria and Iraq, which is why, of course, we have seen an increase in IS acts of terrorism around the world. The jihadists have lost over half their territory and this is due to a number of factors: US-led airstrikes, which include the participation of the French; training and support for various anti-IS Syrian rebel groups and the Iraqi army; the presence of Western special forces; much stricter monitoring of the Turkish border, which has prevented potential IS recruits pouring into Syria; and a drastic decrease in IS’s funds. However, defeating IS is only one aspect of this complex conflict.
Turkey’s position in this conflict is particularly complicated. Like the US it is opposed to the Assad regime and to IS, but Ankara considers the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), one of Washington’s main allies in the fight against IS, as an extension of the Kurdish Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which is fighting for autonomy in Turkey – and hence a terrorist organisation.
Turkish President Racep Tayyip Erdogan has often said that he sees no difference between the SDF and PKK and IS, which certainly doesn’t help matters. Unfortunately, there have even been clashes between the SDF and Turkish-backed rebels in northern Syria.
Turkey, which has increasingly been the target of IS acts of terrorism, has now decided to increase its military response against the jihadists, and last week Turkish warplanes, tanks and special forces crossed the border into Syria to rid the town of Jarablus from Islamic State militants.
Syria is on the verge of becoming a failed State and could soon end up like Somalia
One also cannot ignore the fact that last November a Russian warplane was shot down by Turkey on its border with Syria; the last time a Nato member shot down a Russian or Soviet plane was in the 1950s. However, Ankara and Moscow have recently signalled an intention to normalise relations, thus diffusing another potential flash point.
Here’s another complication: Al-Nusra, one of the biggest rebel Islamist groups in Syria, which was affiliated to al-Qaeda, has broken ranks with the jihadist movement and changed its name to Jabhat Fateh Al-Sham (the Front for the Conquest of the Levant), in an attempt to widen its appeal in the country. According to Syria expert Charles Lister, a senior fellow at the Washington DC-based Middle East Institute, Jabhat Fateh Al-Sham’s “long-term aim is to establish an Islamic emirate in Syria”. He also said the rebranding is “part of a long road map towards unifying all the groups on the ground”.
The US has always considered al-Nusra to be an al-Qaeda linked terrorist organisation and has so far rejected this ‘rebranding’. However, what if the dropping of the al-Qaeda label encourages other moderate rebel groups to join up with to Jabhat Fateh Al-Sham? How will the US distinguish between the groups, and will they convince the Russians not to bomb these groups? It is also a fact that the more united the rebels are, the weaker the position of the Assad regime becomes.
The United States, which has never had much clout over the Syrian regime, needs to seriously review its options in Syria. It is true that Russia and Iran, (but mainly Russia) are the only countries with any real influence on Assad and his government. Unfortunately, however, they have not used their clout in a positive manner and instead of urging Assad to negotiate with his opponents (this was before the war broke out and before the emergence of the Islamic State) they unconditionally backed his hardline stance, which was simply to arrest or kill any people who dared criticise his regime.
Russian airstrikes in favour of Assad have, in fact, been ruthless. Not only have anti-Assad rebels (non-IS) been targeted but so have Opposition-held towns, such as Aleppo, with no regard for civilian casualties. Nearly 250,000 civilians are still in rebel-held areas of Aleppo, and these are cut off from outside aid. The problem with Russia, of course, is that public opinion is almost non-existent and the media is muzzled, so there is no national outrage over what President Vladimir Putin is doing in Syria, and the government is therefore under no pressure to change course.
What options does the US have to try and stop the carnage in Syria? Options are indeed limited and sadly we can’t really expect anything major from the Obama administration in the last few months of this presidency. It is possible, however, that the next US President could consider airstrikes against the Assad regime if it continues to commit war crimes against its own people.
However, the US and Russia seemed to be edging closer to a possible deal on Syria. US Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met in Geneva last Friday in an attempt to reach an agreement on the fight against Islamist State as well as a ceasefire in Aleppo. Mr Kerry said they were close to an agreement, but would not rush into a deal. The talks were held as the Damascus suburb of Darayya was evacuated after a four-year siege by the government.
There is no doubt that the only way forward is for all sides to acknowledge that this war cannot be won, and the longer this stalemate persists the worse it is for the people of Syria. What is needed is an immediate ceasefire between Assad and the rebels (not IS), followed by intense diplomatic negotiations backed by the US, Russia, Turkey, Iran and the Gulf States. Although in the long term Assad should not have any role in Syria’s future, his departure should not be a pre-condition for any agreement to be reached.