I’m not going to shy away from the truth – I made a real dog’s breakfast of last year’s pre-season predictions.
I had Arsenal down for the title, Chelsea as runners-up and the Manchester teams in third and fourth place. In other words, I only called two of the top four correct, was way off with the champions and didn’t see Tottenham Hotspur coming.
Not my finest hour.
However, in my defence, nobody on the planet thought Leicester City would win the league and I doubt many predicted Chelsea would spend the first half of the season playing like a cunningly disguised version of Colchester United.
Anyway, I am confident there will be no unexpected twists this season with things returning to normal. We’ve had our Hollywood fairy tale, now it’s back to reality.
So here’s what’s going to happen this time. Maybe.
And just to keep you on your toes, I’m splitting it up this year – so you get the bottom half of the table today and the top half next week.
Southampton
These days it feels like Southampton is merely a feeder club for the rest of the league. Every summer sees crucial players, and occasionally their manager, poached by bigger teams, making them the ultimate victims of their own success. New boss Claude Puel is taking charge of the Saints’ annual rebuilding job, although this year’s exodus has not been as drastic as in the past. Safe bet for mid-table, I would have thought, although that could depend on whether the vultures launch another raid on their squad before the end of August.
Final position: 11th.
Crystal Palace
There’s quite a decent team brewing down at Selhurst Park: Wilfried Zaha, Yohan Cabaye, Andros Townsend, Joe Ledley, Yannick Bolasie, Scott Dann, Connor Wickham and James Tomkins know how to kick a football. Managerial hothead Alan Pardew took the team to the FA Cup final in his first full season in charge. And he will be looking to improve on last season’s league position of 15th. And, while he will do that, it won’t be by very much. Expect Palace’s season to follow the traditional Pardew pattern: win a few, fight with a rival manager, lose a few, headbutt a player, win a few… and so on. Never dull.
Final position: 12th.
West Bromwich Albion
Saying anything interesting about West Brom seems to get harder and harder every year. Under chairman Jeremy Peace, the club have become a stable and established Premiership side but have shown little ambition to be anything more than that. They are never going to get relegated, especially with Tony Pulis in charge, but they aren’t going to do a Leicester either. If ever a club needed selling for the benefit of its own supporters, it was this one, so let’s hope the new Chinese owners have a bit more ambition. Even if they do, it is unlikely to kick in until next season. So more mediocrity ahead.
Final position: 13th.
Sunderland
New Sunderland manager David Moyes is a man on a mission. And that mission, somewhat ironically, is to prove that he is too good to be Sunderland manager. Moyes still believes he was hard done by at Old Trafford and that he shouldn’t have been fired. And that, somewhat misplaced, belief will drive him on to prove himself at his new club. That doesn’t mean it won’t be another season of struggle for Sunderland.
But Moyes has enough experience to keep them up. Just don’t expect it to be exciting; apart from the games against Man United, when he might just get a plane to fly a banner over the ground saying “LVG – Even Worse Than Me”. Or maybe not.
Final position: 14th.
Watford have changed managers more times than Donald Trump has said something stupid. Well, okay, not that often
Middlesbrough
For some clubs, the owner is just as important as the manager. And Middlesbrough is one of those clubs. Manager Aitor Karanka has done a great job at the Riverside, guiding the club back into the Premiership in his second full season. But a lot of credit has to go to owner Steve Gibson who rescued the club from extinction in 1986, and has remained loyal through the good and bad. With him pulling the purse strings and Karanka organising things on the pitch, Boro should be able to survive relatively comfortably.
Final position: 15th.
Bournemouth
While I appreciate most of the money in the top flight comes from television and sponsorships, I still think it is going to be hard for a team with such a small ground to build a long-term future in the Premier League. With a capacity of just 11,000, Dean Court is barely big enough to hold all of Manchester City’s registered players. Having said that, Bournemouth survived last season pretty comfortably, claiming a few big scalps on the way.
Eddie Howe’s challenge is to ensure there won’t be a drop in form now the excitement and adrenalin of that first season has worn off. Season two is when the reality of the perpetual struggle can hit home, and they need to overcome that to stay up. They will.
Final position: 16th.
Burnley
Without a doubt, Sean Dyche must be one of the most promising young managers in English football. He only got his first managerial job in 2011 but in just five years has already won two promotions to the Premier League, both with Burnley.
Although his first visit to the top flight ended in tears, I suspect he will have learned enough from his mistakes not to let it happen again. They will stay up and Dyche’s reputation will continue to grow. He may one day be England manager, if his luck runs out.
Final position: 17th.
Swansea City
Since getting promoted to the top flight in 2011, Swansea have gone about their business in relatively sensible fashion, building gradually with long-term stability paramount. But over the past couple of seasons they have started to look increasingly panicky, firing managers for reasons that don’t make a whole lot of sense. Current boss Francesco Guidolin saved them from relegation last season, but I suspect he will also find himself sacked after a poor run at some point this season, and this time the club won’t survive.
Final position: 18th.
Watford
Many football experts would have us believe managerial stability brings success. Watford are the exception that proves the rule. Since the club was taken over by the Pozzo family in 2012, they have changed managers more times than Donald Trump has said something stupid.
Well, okay, not that often, but it has been a revolving door policy at Vicarage Road. In their promotion season, for example, they managed a staggering five different head coaches. Last season newly appointed boss Quique Sanchez Flores comfortably kept them in the top flight. But the Pozzos decided it was time for another change and asked Walter Mazzarri to write his name neatly, in non-permanent marker, on the manager’s door. At some point, this constant change is going to bite them in the bottom. This season is going to be that time.
Final position: 19th.
Hull City
Promotion to the Premier League is supposed to be a time for rejoicing, but I doubt there are many Hull City fans smiling right now.
Their only real hope of staying up this season was with Steve Bruce in charge and plenty of new signings to bolster their weak squad.
But Bruce has gone and, with no replacement in place, the signings haven’t happened. The wantaway owners might want to rush through the sale of the club because in nine months’ time they will be trying to sell a Championship club once again.
It would all have been so different if the owners had got their way and changed the club’s name to Hull Tigers. Oh wait, no it wouldn’t.
Final position: 20th.
So there you go, apologies to Hull, Watford and Swansea fans.
Then again, with the way my predictions tend to have the opposite effect, I may just have saved you all from going down.
Stay tuned next week for the top 10. I know, the anticipation is killing you, but a little bit of prediction foreplay never hurt anyone.
sportscolumnist@timesofmalta.com
Twitter: @maltablade