US retail sales rose more than expected in June as Americans bought motor vehicles and a variety of other goods, reinforcing views that economic growth picked up in the second quarter.
Other data yesterday showed consumer prices increasing for a fourth straight month in June on rising housing, gasoline and healthcare costs, indicating a steady build-up in inflation. The stream of upbeat data and a rally on Wall Street could allow the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates later this year.
“The Fed will welcome the continued strength in consumer spending and the latest positive jobs report, but it’s clearly in zero rush to tighten policy,” said Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. “These two reports might increase the odds of a September rate increase at the margin.”
The Commerce Department said retail sales increased 0.6 per cent last month after gaining 0.2 per cent in May. It was the third straight month of increases and lifted sales 2.7 per cent from a year ago.
Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales shot up 0.5 per cent after advancing 0.5 per cent in May. These so-called core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product.
Economists had forecast overall retail sales edging up 0.1 per cent and core sales gaining 0.3 per cent last month.
Coming on the heels of a surge in job growth in June and an acceleration in manufacturing and services sectors activity, the solid retail sales report suggested the economy had regained speed after a first-quarter lull.
Strong domestic demand is being reflected in steady increases in consumer prices. In a separate report, the Labour Department said its Consumer Price Index rose 0.2 per cent last month after a similar gain in May. In the 12 months through June, the CPI advanced 1.0 per cent, matching May’s increase.
The so-called core CPI, which strips out food and energy costs, also rose 0.2 per cent in June, increasing by the same margin for three consecutive months. That lifted the year-on-year core CPI gain to 2.3 per cent from 2.2 per cent in May.
This increase is higher than the average annual rate of 1.9 per cent over the past 10 years. The Federal Reserve has a two per cent inflation target and tracks an inflation measure which is currently at 1.6 per cent.
Concerns about persistently low inflation contributed to the US central bank keeping interest rates unchanged last month. The Fed raised its benchmark overnight interest rate in December for the first time in nearly a decade.
The dollar rose against a basket of currencies after the data, while prices for US government debt fell. US stock index futures extended gains.
June’s strong increase in core retail sales could prompt economists to raise their second-quarter GDP growth estimates.