There is no doubt that the result of the UK’s EU referendum sent shockwaves throughout Europe and Britain. The country’s new Prime Minister – either Theresa May or Andrea Leadsom – will soon have to decide whether to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty – and thus officially inform the European Union that Britain intends to leave the bloc. Whether the Prime Minister can do this without Parliament’s approval is subject to legal interpretation.
There are many other questions surrounding the Brexit vote. Will the new Prime Minister call an election before invoking Article 50? If so, will Labour run on a platform to remain in the EU, as the Liberal Democrats are doing? If the exit negotiations are not favourable to the UK, will another referendum be called? Will a special arrangement be negotiated for Scotland and Northern Ireland to remain within the EU to prevent them from splitting off from the UK?
My wish is obviously for the UK to have second thoughts about leaving the EU. The warnings by the experts on the Remain side in the referendum – who were so unfairly ridiculed by the Leave campaigners – have now started to materialise. Sterling is at a 31-year low against the dollar, the markets are still on edge as $2 trillion were wiped off global markets the day after the referendum, many financial services companies are considering moving from London to Berlin or Paris, the UK could well break up, hate crimes have increased by 42 per cent since voters chose to leave the EU and of course the country is clouded in uncertainty as there was zero planning for the possibility of a Brexit by the Leave campaigners.
However, if Britain does invoke Article 50, it is in everyone’s interest for a good agreement to be reached between the two sides. On Friday the IMF said that uncertainties caused by Brexit will cause eurozone economic growth to decelerate to 1.4 per cent in 2017 from 1.6 per cent this year. So it is important that the negotiations are not prolonged. Britain will remain a very important economic partner of the EU and a key member of Nato – so it will continue to contribute towards Europe’s security. Whatever the outcome, both Brussels and London have to perform a delicate balancing act to safeguard their interests.
In the aftermath of the Brexit vote, the priority for the EU right now is to keep the remaining 27 Member States in the bloc and to ensure stability and level-headedness within the Union. To do this, however, it must acknowledge that it has to change radically in the way it operates, in the way it communicates, in the way it sells itself and what it focuses on. The EU is facing a huge challenge to its very existence, with populist parties on the Right and Left of the political spectrum springing up throughout Europe. Many citizens, furthermore, feel detached from the EU as it struggles to tackle major challenges such as migration and youth unemployment.
It is important that the EU’s social dimension is given more prominence by the bloc
It is important that the EU concentrates on the issues that really make a difference to people’s lives. Despite the claims of the populists, EU citizens do want the Member States to work together to address Europe’s major challenges. The most recent Eurobarometer, which measures public opinion in the EU, shows that very large majorities of Europeans (in most cases 75 per cent and more) want the bloc to take more action on migration, on the protection of external borders, on the fight against unemployment, on the fight against tax fraud, on the fight against terrorism, on the promotion of democracy and peace in the world and on environmental protection.
These are the areas where the EU can and should be making a difference for its citizens. It needs to focus on these things and not on issues which are best handled at a national level. Nor must it waste time on unnecessary directives which might complicate things for small businesses. Brussels must also be more aware of the various cultural differences within the EU and take these into account when considering various social agendas.
The EU also needs to have a good look at its institutions, especially the European Commission, Parliament and Council, and recognise that many Europeans either feel disconnected from them or simply do not understand how they operate. I was recently surprised by a friend of mine, who has a professional background, who told me, “The European Commission should stop imposing laws on EU countries.” When I told him that that the Commission only proposes legislation which then has to be to discussed, amended and adopted (or thrown out) by the Member States represented in Council of the EU, together with the European Parliament, he replied, “I didn’t know that, these things should be explained to us.”
Still, some soul-searching is needed on how EU institutions operate and how they can be made more ‘citizen friendly’. The fact that European Commissioners (as well as the President of the Commission) are not directly elected by voters is often resented by many people. Furthermore, the perception exists that the bureaucrats who work for the European Commission, as well as Members of the European Parliament, are greatly overpaid and detached from the everyday lives of EU citizens. A radical overhaul is needed of the way Brussels functions and European Commission President Jean Claude Juncker might not be the ideal person to preside over this transformation. Perhaps he should step aside and make way for someone outside the ‘Brussels establishment’ to take over.
Crucially, the EU needs a decent communication strategy which until now has been pretty poor. People are concerned about the big issues affecting them and how the EU is trying to make their lives better; they do not particularly care about how many directives are issued by the EU, nor do they want to listen to technical bureaucratic language when hearing about the EU.
Of course, the Member States have an important role here and governments should be telling their citizens and the media about the EU’s achievements – and there have been many over the past 58 years – such as peace, economic prosperity and social justice. In Britain, various governments did not do this, and Conservative ministers often blamed Brussels for the country’s problems. The referendum vote is the result of this misguided attitude.
Finally, it is important that the EU’s social dimension is given more prominence by the bloc. The EU is losing support among working class voters who are switching to right-wing populist parties because there is a perception that Brussels is too oriented towards bankers, businesses and professionals.
This assessment must be challenged and addressed by putting in place more measures that lead to job creation and economic growth, and being more careful when promoting austerity measures.