The opinion polls were right after all and unfortunately Britons have voted to leave the European Union. It is a sad day for both the UK and Europe and both sides will be worse off as a result. A lot is at stake and now is the time for calm reflection on the way forward. The EU’s main challenge right now is to adapt to the changing sentiment in Europe and to make itself more relevant to people’s lives.
The split in the vote was 51.9 per cent in favour of leaving the EU and 48.1 per cent in favour of remaining in the bloc. The Leave side received nearly 1.3 million votes more that the Remain side. England and Wales – which ironically has received the highest per capita injection of EU funds – voted for a Brexit, while Scotland and Northern Ireland voted by a huge margin to remain in the EU.
The political consequences of the vote were immediate. Prime Minister David Cameron announced he would be resigning by October and a motion of no confidence in Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn was presented by a group of Labour MPs. Mr Cameron took a huge (and completely reckless and unnecessary) gamble when he decided to hold this referendum and he had no choice but to resign when the electorate chose to leave the EU.
Mr Corbyn, on the other hand, who was once a eurosceptic, did not put his heart and soul into the campaign and he failed to convince enough Labour voters to vote for the Remain side. In fact, the Leave vote was higher than expected in traditional northern Labour strongholds. Mr Corbyn’s days are surely numbered.
The economic and financial consequences were also immediate, as predicted. Markets tumbled, sterling crashed and the UK has had its credit rating outlook downgraded to negative by the ratings agency Moody’s which said that the referendum result would have “negative implications for the country’s medium-term growth outlook”.
The future of the UK as a unitary State is now also very much in doubt. Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said a second independence referendum was “highly likely” after the UK voted to leave the EU. She said it was unacceptable that Scotland, which voted in favour of remaining in the EU by 62 per cent to 38 per cent, faced the possibility of leaving the bloc. She also said the Scottish government was already preparing legislation for another independence referendum.
A Brexit could also have serious implications for Northern Ireland, which voted by a majority of 56 per cent to 44 per cent to remain in the EU. There have been calls by Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness for the entire island of Ireland to be able to vote on reunification, pointing out that the people of Northern Ireland, both Nationalist and Unionist, had voted for the Remain side.
Although a referendum on Irish unity is not necessarily imminent, it is an undeniable fact that having both Britain and the Republic of Ireland in the EU has helped Northern Ireland tremendously, both in terms of the peace process as well as job creation and investment. I think we could see a shift in public opinion in the province away from remaining part of the UK, should a Brexit really take place.
The sad thing about this referendum is that it was so unnecessary, and it was only held because Mr Cameron wanted to placate the right-wing eurosceptic elements in his Conservative Party. Furthermore, when one considers that the British public (especially the English) have for years been bombarded with anti-EU articles in the tabloid press, the fact that various Conservative MPs and ministers made Brussels the scapegoat for the country’s problems and no main political party (with the exception of the Liberal Democrats and Scottish Nationalists) really made the case for Europe, one can only conclude that the decision to call a referendum was nothing but madness.
One should look at the possibility of keeping Scotland and Northern Ireland in the EU as well as in the UK, as England and Wales opt out of the bloc
The referendum vote also showed that university graduates and the young voted overwhelmingly in favour of the EU, while the elderly (very selfishly) and the poorly educated voted against remaining in the EU. London, which ironically has a huge migrant population, both from the EU and outside, voted heavily in favour of remaining in the EU. Two petitions are now making the rounds, namely that a second referendum should be held and that London should be break off from the UK and join the EU. They have attracted thousands of signatures, and while the latter petition is unlikely to get anywhere (perhaps a special status for London?) it does show how Londoners feel they stand to lose by leaving the EU.
While I feel that the arguments of the Remain campaign were solid and factual, and the benefits of the UK’s EU membership were clearly explained, the populist arguments (and untruths) of the Leave campaign were easier to sell to a largely uninformed electorate. It is said that after the referendum, when the realities of a Brexit started to sink in, many people who had voted to leave actually googled ‘What is the EU?’ This is a lesson the EU should heed: Europe should not be about technicalities but it should be marketed in everyday language and should be about bread and butter issues that affect people’s lives.
Despite the Remain side being backed by nearly all the political parties, (the Conservatives were divided) as well as trade unions, economists, businesses, medical professionals, artists, environmentalists and scientists, the Leave side still won, showing just how difficult it is to sell the concept of Europe and how detached people feel from the EU. The EU must come to terms with and address this immediately.
How will the EU react to this disappointing vote? The initial sentiment will definitely be ‘Out is out’ with little room for compromise, and EU officials have already made this clear. However, nothing is likely to happen until a new Prime Minister takes office, which might even be followed by a general election. It is important to keep in mind that this referendum was only a consultative one and there is no legal requirement to follow through with the outcome of the vote. Furthermore, there exists a huge pro-EU majority of MPs in the House of Commons so anything can happen.
Ideally, of course, a new deal can be reached between the EU and the UK which would keep Britain in the bloc. I know this is both highly unlikely and a risky precedent, but I somehow get the feeling that Boris Johnson, the pro-Leave campaigner who now stands a good chance of replacing Mr Cameron, would rather stay in the EU if he manages to get some concessions, especially over the free movement of people principle and perhaps over the European Court’s jurisdiction over the UK. But we will have to wait and see.
The EU now needs to think outside the box and its immediate priority is to prevent a spill over effect to other countries where Euroscepticism is on the rise, such as France, the Netherlands, and yes, even Italy. It needs to reconnect with its citizens, have a good look at itself and integrate further only where it is absolutely necessary.
EU enlargement should definitely be put on hold, and different models of EU membership should be considered – the concept of a two-speed Europe comes to mind – which might even keep the UK in the bloc. One should also look at the possibility of keeping Scotland and Northern Ireland in the EU as well as in the UK, as England and Wales opt out of the bloc.
I know this will be a legal nightmare but a similar situation exits with Denmark, only in reverse – Denmark is in the EU but Greenland, an autonomous Danish territory, is not.
The EU has certainly been a great success story and has a lot to be proud of. Its achievements over the years have been huge, such as peace, stability, economic growth, increased prosperity, consolidation of democracy, increased tolerance, social justice and being a force for good on the international stage. It now faces a huge challenge and its leaders must rise to the occasion and have the courage to change. Too much is at stake.