Tomorrow, Britain goes to the polls on arguably the most important vote in 70 years. It is a vote that will have a profound effect on hundreds of millions of European citizens, including 65 million Britons. For many people, the agony cannot be over too soon. Whatever Prime Minister David Cameron expected when he blithely pledged a referendum three years ago, it surely cannot have been anything as unedifying, self-flagellating, potentially self-destructive and, yes, unnecessary as this.

And why? Simply to satisfy the whims of an internal Conservative Party squabble gripped by a collective madness, hell-bent on committing a gratuitous act of self-harm. It is a party split down the middle by a right-wing cabal united by a visceral hatred of the European Union.

Regardless of tomorrow’s outcome, they will not accept the verdict until they have seen Britain leave. The fact that this might also topple the European Union would be for them a welcome side effect. That it would almost certainly break up the UK, bring down their country’s economy and inflict years of misery on their fellow-countrymen is seen as a price worth paying.

The battle within the Tory party is likely to become so vicious that the Cameron government will find it difficult to reunite purposefully

What kind of world might we wake up to on Friday morning of June 24 when the result has been determined?

What happens if Britain votes to leave? Under EU rules, the only legal way to leave is to activate Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty by announcing that Britain wishes to quit. This will trigger a two-year (almost certainly longer) process of negotiations to determine the terms by which Britain would leave the Union and the arrangements on trade that would follow when the United Kingdom is outside. Those terms would be decided by the other 27 nations, including Malta.

Nobody can confidently predict what Britain’s economic and trading arrangements will look like in the event of a vote to leave. Any ambitious UK-EU trade deal, as postulated by those wishing to leave, will need to be ratified in 27 legislatures as well as the European Parliament. This could take anything from five to 10 years, during which British firms – and the British people - will face an uncertain future. It is most unlikely that Britain would be a more prosperous place at the end of it.

Cameron has insisted that this referendum vote will be final and that it would be anti-democratic to ignore the result if the public chooses to leave. But several Brexit campaigners have suggested that – as has happened with earlier referendums in EU countries whose results were not to its liking - Brussels is bound to offer further concessions that could be put to a fresh vote. Further negotiations leading to a second referendum is not an impossibility.

In the real world, Britons will immediately feel the economic effects. Although the Bank of England has drawn up contingency plans and is ready to pump money into the economy to ensure liquidity in the banking system, every reputable economic forecast concludes that there would be an inevitable economic shock. This would lead to the pound falling (it has already been on the slide), leading to a possible sterling crisis, bringing the risk of higher interest rates.

Internationally, the departure of the world’s fifth largest economy from the EU will affect not only the lives of the British people and their prosperity but also have severe knock-on effects on the global economy, with the disruption of trade that it would inevitably precipitate.

Brexit would be a shock to the system that the world cannot afford at the best of times, let alone today during a time of near global stagflation. Malta, as one of the countries most exposed to a negative fall-out from Britain’s decision to leave would be seriously affected.

Politically, the reverberations of Britain’s decision to leave will be felt immediately throughout Europe. Anti-European parties will gain added momentum. The EU will therefore want to drive a hard bargain in any subsequent discussions with the UK to avoid contagion further undermining the Union. In a competitive global market-place, European countries will seek any advantage they can gain, thus adding to market turbulence and instability.

What will happen if the UK votes to stay? There can be no doubt that Cameron’s toughest time will begin on June 24. There is no question that if Britain votes to leave the EU, his time will be up. The intriguing question is whether he has much time left even if he wins. I still hope – against the odds - that solid British common sense to remain will ultimately prevail. But even if he wins the referendum, the Prime Minister will be facing growing, probably unstoppable, calls for his departure.

Barely a year after an unexpectedly convincing general election victory, the Prime Minister’s Conservative Party will find itself facing a leadership crisis.

If the country decides to stay in the EU, it is already clear that his party is in no mood to reward Cameron. Tory members of Parliament have already been canvassing one another to find out how big a margin of victory he would need to prevent moves to topple him.

During the Vietnam War unruly United States troops coined a new word: “fragging”. It meant premeditated “blue on blue” killings, usually of a superior, often by rolling a fragmentation grenade into their tent at night. Thanks to the referendum, the Conservative government is now being fragged by its own MPs.

The battle within the party is likely to become so vicious that the Cameron government will find it difficult to reunite purposefully. When a party is divided – as we saw so vividly in Malta in 2011-12 – voters tend to turn away from it. If the Tory Party’s civil war rages on – and it is difficult to see how it will not continue given the ideologies of the right wing – Jeremy Corbyn may not seem so unelectable after all.

Those voting tomorrow to leave the EU will not accept defeat graciously. Every day of this referendum campaign - with virtually all the print media in favour of leaving the Union - they have honed sharper edges on their sense of grievance, both against Europe as well as their Prime Minister who has led the argument to remain. They cannot forgive Cameron for allowing them to believe he was a fellow Eurosceptic when they chose him for leader.

The government’s working majority is fragile. Nine Tory MPs can overturn it. The collapse of party discipline will make it more difficult to legislate for the remainder of this parliament just at a time when the country needs good governance and leadership most. The dispute between the different wings of the party have made the government look ramshackle.

Just as the Vietnam War demoralised and divide the US for a generation, so the question of Britain’s relations with Europe has torn the Tory Party apart. Those arguing for Brexit today may find their fragmentation grenades fail to take Britain out of the EU, but blow up the Conservatives’ hold on power instead.

Whatever the outcome of this ill-judged referendum, Britain is in need of a government that works. It seems unlikely to get one for some while. And it may not be a Conservative one.

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