As days keep ticking away rapidly in anticipation of the fateful British EU referendum, I discovered that this is also a much discussed subject among the Maltese. The most frequently asked question is who will finally prevail: the remainers or the leavers?
That question, in itself the subject of many polls both in the UK and throughout the whole world, will be replied definitely on the night between Thursday and Friday.
As things seem to be from the outside, the result is too close to call and neither camp is leaving any stone unturned to reach its goal. In the meantime, I came across a very interesting survey tackling the subject from a rather different perspective. The survey had the task to gauge the input of Brexit on consumer behaviour.
It was conducted by Opinium, a strategic insight agency bent on finding “what people think, feel and do”, collaborating with the London School of Economics electoral psychology team. According to the LSE team, the emerging report published a few days ago, represents the culmination of their joint work around the world, uncovering and understanding how and why people make their voting decisions.
This in-depth study provides a thorough and complete academic review into the public’s hearts and minds and how the result of this unique moment in time will affect the behaviours and attitudes of British households for years to come.
The key themes of this extensive survey, were: most convincing arguments for leaving or remaining in the EU; whose interest do people have in mind when casting their vote; how much better or worse will households be as a result of the referendum; winners and losers in the event of Brexit; and how consumer consumption will be affected by this referendum.
This survey seems to have a high rate of credibility and reliability because it is based on what over 3,000 respondents had to say and this is between three and six times more than most commercial surveys on this referendum.
The following are the key findings of this survey which aims to understand the psychology of the EU referendum vote among the British people.
This referendum is largely perceived as the most important vote in a generation (for 54 per cent of respondents and among the top three for 81 per cent).
In terms of campaigning, the arguments put forward by the ‘Leave’ camp meet with significantly higher scepticism than those put forward by the ‘Remain’ camp, even among supporters of Brexit. Three of five key arguments of the ‘Remain’ camp were predominantly seen as believable – notably the fear of a new Scottish independence referendum in case of Brexit and trust that, if UK stays in, there will be a majority in Europe for a better and more effective EU which will thus improve things in the coming years. On the other hand, four of five key arguments put forward by the ‘Leave’ camp were seen as manipulative – notably, people do not believe that Brexit will reduce immigration, or that the EU would offer the UK a new deal in case of a vote to leave.
The most important argument of the Brexit camp is largely perceived to be the fight against immigration. Opinions are far more split on ‘Remain’ camp arguments, with access to the world’s largest market, the fact the British are European, and the EU enabling Britain to be stronger and punch above its weight being supported by almost equal proportions of voters.
Everything about this referendum highlights a clash between generations
When it comes to spontaneous associations with the ideas of ‘leaving the EU’ or ‘remaining part of it’, the results are contrasted between the two outcomes. Brexiting results in a mixed bag of negative visions (fear, uncertainty, danger or even catastrophe) and a positive hope for freedom. By contrast, the prospect of remaining evolves more globally positive words: reassurance, safety, security, unity and even happiness.
Consistently with the persistent fundings of LSE electoral psychology research, it was found that people’s vote in the referendum will be more sociotropic than egocentric, as well as projective. Voters are more interested in what is best for the British people as a whole and particularly the generation of today’s children than themselves.
British voters are actually overwhelmingly happy to be in a union with most European countries from Ireland to France and even from Germany to Poland, Belgium and Spain, and in practice, the difference between Bremainers and Brexiters essentially pertains to disagreements on whether or not to be in a union with Romania and some possible future member states such as Ukraine.
How much will British households gain or lose depending on the referendum outcome? If you ask 18-24 year olds, every household will be £9 better on average if Britain remains a member of the EU, but £155 worse off if it leaves. By contrast, 65+ year olds believe that households will be £239 a year worse off if Britain remains, although they also believe that they will be £6 worse off if Britain leaves.
While people favouring a remain vote predictably believe that the British will gain from remaining and lose out from leaving, and people favouring a leave vote the contrary, it is interesting to note that those unsure of their vote are much closer to the position of Bremainers than that of Brexiters and that they will be much worse off by leaving.
Everyone would miss something about EU membership, but different generations would miss different aspects. To under 40s it is mostly the core EU citizenship rights, such as the rights to live (80 per cent), work (70 per cent), or study anywhere in the EU, being part of a European human and political community (76 per cent), and the European passport (77 per cent). By contrast, those over 55 would mostly miss more specific aspects such as being medically protected all over the EU (66 per cent), benefitting from EU consumer protection (57 per cent) or being able to bring back anything that they wish from anywhere in the EU (52 per cent). It is worth noting that the answers of those undecided about how to vote are much closer to those of Bremainers than those of Brexiters on this question.
What will be the impact of the referendum outcome on future customer behaviour? First of all, the referendum itself has produced uncertainty which tends to result in negative consumer behaviour prospects regardless of the outcome.
Nevertheless, the expected negative effect seems to be significantly stronger should the UK decide to leave the EU. This would result in much worse prospects in terms of life choices, housing, investment, consumption and holiday plans. By contrast, a Brexit would lead to higher prospects of taking out personal loans, changing banks and going out for meals. There is no significant difference when it comes to savings or insurantial behaviour.
Everything about this referendum highlights a clash between generations. Those under 40 and those above have entirely different outlooks on whether to remain in the EU or leave, what will be the impact of the vote on the country and on their own behaviour. The young expect to be particularly affected in case the UK decides to leave. There are also strong regional differences with the biggest contrast being between the very pro-European greater London and the very eurosceptic Midlands and eastern England. Northern Ireland and Scotland are very much in the ‘Remain’ camp.
With all this useful background we wait in trepidation for Britain to democratically choose its own destiny. A destiny which will somehow or other be having a direct bearing on others, not least us, the Maltese.
Kristy Debono is the Nationalist Party’s spokesperson for financial services, IT and gaming.