It’s decision time for Britons. The question on the ballot is simple: remain or leave. The consequences of either choice is however more complex. The EU referendum campaign has been a roller coaster ride. For many months the remain camp led at the opinion polls. Things appear to have changed lately as the latest polls are suggesting a strong lead for the leave camp. The polls however got it wrong in the 2015 general election and they might get it wrong again.
Polls are conducted by two means, online or telephone. The online polls are showing a comfortable lead for Brexit while the polls conducted by phone are showing a marginal lead for the remain camp.
It has been suggested that in political online polls those in favour of change tend to engage themselves more than those in favour of the status quo. It happened in 2015 when Labour voters participated in online polls more than the Tories did. As a result the polls were distorted and a different outcome ensued in the general election.
Still, the published polls offer rich information about voting intentions by different categories. According to The Economist’s poll, the rich among the population are more likely to vote to remain than the poor. The same with the younger generation who appear to support remaining in as opposed to a strong vote to leave among the elder generation.
Apart from Scotland and London, all of the United Kingdom seems to be in favour of leaving. The same poll established that the majority of Tory voters want to leave while a third of labour voters appear to be of the same opinion.
It has been a tough campaign built on scaremongering from both sides. At times we witnessed personal clashes among colleagues of the same party, particularly the Tories.
The campaign focused on two themes. The main argument for the remain camp was the economy and the possible catastrophe in the event of Britons voting to leave. On the other hand, the leave camp built their campaign around the migration issue and its effect on the NHS and the welfare state.
The campaign is now almost over and there is a possibility that Britons will vote to leave the EU. But what will happen in that event? It will take months, possibly a couple of years, for Britain to actually free itself from its obligations to the EU. But the impact of the British vote will be instant.
The rise of the farright and anti-establishment parties are living proof of the disenchantment with the EU
In Britain the biggest loser in either outcome is going to be David Cameron and his Conservative Party which has been split over this issue. In the event of a leave vote, Cameron will probably not survive in Downing Street and will step down immediately. Boris Johnson would be the likely successor at number 10.
The issue of Scotland’s independence will almost certainly resurface immediately. Life in the House of Commons will become difficult.
Lord O’Donnell, the ex-cabinet secretary, says a government formed after Brexit may have difficulty passing significant laws. In his words, Parliament will be paralysed by gridlock because the majority of MPs are in favour of remaining in and may not vote for legislation which would be required by the new government.
In the event of a remain vote, the British Prime Minister will still have to work hard to unite his divided party. A possible solution would be to promote Michael Gove, the face of Brexit and a personal friend of his, to deputy PM.
The effect of Brexit on Malta is also substantial. A week ago a friend of mine who is a well known auditor told me that in the event of Brexit in the medium term we will all become 20% (this is his personal estimate and not based on any scientific study) poorer because of the economic uncertainty which will ensue. A sharp fall of the Sterling is likely to happen and that will negatively affect tourism from Britain which is a third of our market. The financial services are also likely to be hit as would direct British investment.
In January 2017 Malta will take the presidency of the European Union. As with other presidencies, the Maltese government sets out the agenda for its six-month term. We were told that irregular migration and the appalling situation in the Mediterranean will take centre stage during our presidency.
In the event of Brexit, Malta will have to oversee the negotiations with Britain. I am pretty sure that this will take precedence over any other issue which the government may want to include in the agenda.
In all probability we will have missed our chance to discuss matters which directly affect us.
In Europe Brexit will probably have a cascade effect and other countries will probably follow the British footsteps. I will be not be surprised if by the end of the year another country or two will have declared a referendum identical to the British one.
It is a pity if this great institutionwhich has been so important to maintain peace and stability on the continentis undermined.
The sentiment against the European Union among those in lower levels of society is not exclusive to Britain. While the richer within the EU appear to have done well, those in the lower working class are not so enthusiastic about their prospects within the EU.
The rise of the far right and anti-establishment parties such as UKIP in Britain and Marie Le Pen’s party in France are living proof of the disenchantment with the EU.
The European Commission cannot do anything about Britain now.
It would do well however to think about life after Brexit.
Hermann Schiavone is a Nationalist Party candidate and political analyst.