Those following the UK debate on the likely effects of the UK’s exit from the EU must feel more confused as the referendum campaign draws to an end than they did at the beginning. Claims and counterclaims range from political scaremongering to possibly quite realistic forecasts.

What is of interest for Malta is a clinical analysis leading to predictions on how the different sectors of the economy are likely to be affected if Britain were to leave the EU. The rating agency Fitch is one of many organisations that have come up with such an analysis even if at a first glance their findings look rather superficial.

Fitch concludes that Malta, together with Belgium, the Netherlands, Cyprus and Luxembourg, whose exports of goods and services to the UK amount to a minimum eight per cent of GDP, are the most exposed to negative effects as a result of Brexit. This sounds like a reasonable assessment but does it stand the test of scrutiny?

Tourism is Malta’s leading service industry and the UK market is still one of the most important. It is very unlikely that British tourists will be put off coming to this island only because the UK, unlike Malta, will no longer be a member of the EU.

It is more likely that if other EU member states place some restrictions on travellers from the UK, it will be Malta that will benefit because of our traditional ties with Britain.

The financial services industry is another important economic activity for Malta. This industry is almost by definition borderless even if it is becoming more regulated on an international level.

Some local financial services operators argue that, should the UK decide to leave the EU, some boutique financial services operators, like fund managers, based in London but with close business links to the EU, may decide to relocate to an EU jurisdiction like Malta or Luxembourg. So it is more likely that the financial services sector in Malta would benefit as a result of Brexit.

Manufacturing output in Malta is no longer what it used to be as the local economy becomes increasingly services oriented. While exports to the UK are still important, Maltese exporters are now more focused on selling their goods in other EU countries as well as the Middle East. The effects of Brexit on the manufacturing sector are therefore unlikely to be of any major significance.

What is possibly more significant is the likely political fallout from Brexit. If the UK decides to vote against remaining in the EU next June, it will be the first country to do so. Some political analysts argue that this could well be the beginning of a steady erosion of the EU influence on global politics.

With Europe facing major security and immigration crises, the lack of strong political leadership from Brussels may continue to foment increasing euroscepticism among ordinary people. The EU without Britain will be a weaker political union and that will not be good for Malta.

Fitch is right when it forecasts that “Brexit would create a precedent for countries leaving the EU”, especially in the present context of political fragmentation in most EU countries. This fragmentation is inhibiting political leaders from taking tough decisions to strengthen the economic infrastructure of the EU.

Fitch forecasts on the likely economic effects of Brexit on Malta are possibly just educated guesses, though the predicted political effects on the EU as a whole are more convincing.