In recent weeks, the Italian Treasury published certain observations that resulted from studies into the possible long-term consequences to the British economy should the referendum be followed by a Brexit from the European Union.

The Italian Treasury posited three possible scenarios for the UK’s relationship with the EU.

The first, membership of the European Economic Space (similar, say, to Norway’s) would carry with it falls in the country’s GDP of between 3.4 and 4.3 per cent between now and 2030.

In the second scenario posited, that of some form of bilateral trade agreement with the EU (on the lines of Canada’s), the fall in GDP would be 4.6 to 7.8 per cent over the same period.

And the third scenario, simple WTO membership, would carry a loss of 5.4 to 9.5 per cent.

Irrespective of whether the British will eventually be saying yes or no in the referendum, those are the indicatory thrusts the Italian Treasury’s economists have worked out, generally based on current trade relationships the UK has with the EU.

If the UK leaves, it will become less open to trade with the EU, also because member states always preferentially choose other members to do business with and will continue to do so.

Intra-EU foreign direct investment also functions in similar preferential manners.

Outside the EU, the British economy may become less regulated and, in some senses, even more dynamic. But among high-income economies, the UK is already among the least regulated.

Also, the number of international observers decreeing a possible Brexit as the beginning of the era of the West’s collective crumbling is increasing day by day. This might explain why Barack Obama has spoken so clearly about and against Brexit but in its eventuality there simply will be absolutely nothing the US could be able to do to change the West’s fortunes, or even to minimally repair the damage.