The two-hour visit by Joseph Muscat to Libya following a recent long line of dignitaries from other countries who visit the ‘heavily guarded’ naval base only serves to reconfirm the fact that so-called Prime Minister Fayez Serraj and his phantom Government of National Accord is not in actual power but is a complete illusion. No election took place and he cannot take up residency in the Prime Minister’s Office. Serraj is simply a western invention, a puppet.

These visits are pure theatre. Serraj has no control of any of Tripoli let alone Libya; he can barely leave the fortified naval base.

The fact, though, is that the end game in Libya appears to be close. I think we can expect it to slide fairly slowly down a chaotic path that could take months before diplomats are exchanged between EU countries and Libya let alone any resumption of contracts whether for oil or anything else. It’s a UN and EU fantasy that is sold to the media by spin as a reality.

Sounds like a mega-upheaval is about to occur both in Europe and on Libya’s three dimensional chessboard

It is looking more and more likely that the other UN selected illusion, the Presidency Council, will declare Tripoli’s Government of National Accord in power without Tobruk’s House of Representatives’ approval, which is contrary to the Libya Political Agreement. This will happen in the next days in a special ceremony at a yet to be announced venue. More magic.

The Government of National Accord idea is becoming significantly unpopular for the citizens of Libya. The benchmark is a study of the currency slide over the last 10 days in the black market, which is the real indicator of the lack of confidence of the people in the Government of National Accord.

The Presidency Council is nervous. They are afraid that unless the Government of National Accord is formally installed quickly, the impetus behind the Libyan Political Agreement, and support for it will collapse.

From the Presidency Council’s point of view, a move to declare the Government of National Accord as being ‘approved’ is critical in Tripoli together with most of the west and south of Libya. These areas (other than Zintan) are likely to accept the Government of National Accord’s authority as they know it is both created and approved by the UN/US and the UK and that then translates into money coming back to the country that is currently being held in western banks.

But this rush to judgement for short-term financial gain highlights the major problems to come in Libya.

The Presidency Council’s plan will actually further divide Libya between east and west, possibly pushing Libya towards de facto secession and two, maybe three, separate entities.

Many political leaders in the east are opposed to the UN’s creation, the Government of National Accord, having convinced themselves that it is anti-Cyrenaica, anti-Libyan National Army, pro-Muslim Brotherhood and pro-Misurata.

Clearly, the Libyan army and the Thinni government in Beida will refuse to accept the Presidency Council’s plan.

The latter will continue operating in Beida, claiming, rightly, to be the legitimate government.

There are many key questions that arise from this political tumble.

First, what will happen to oil exports from the eastern terminals? Having just failed to make an oil sale with the uploading of the now blacklisted Indian-registered oil tanker, the Distya Ameya, the Tobruk lobby is unlikely to allow other exports to leave via Tobruk or Zuweitina.

Ibrahim Jidran and his brothers seem to still control Sidra and Ras Lanouf and support the Libya Political Agreement, mainly because they oppose Khalifa Haftar. But Sidra and Ras Lanouf are not pumping because of threats/damage from IS attacks.

Oil exports from the east are anyway therefore in question.

Second, will the House of Representatives itself divide with supporters of the Government of National Accord moving to Tripoli and opponents staying in Tobruk? What will Zintan do? With Omar Aswad still refusing to rejoin the Presidency Council, the town remains disconnected from the council.

At the very least, Zintanis are likely to continue to blockade oil and gas from the east going to Melltah and Zawia, hurting mostly Italy. These unknowns are the real deal breakers.

Bear in mind the potential future importance of Saif Gaddafi, still imprisoned in Zintan, though rumoured to be in comparative comfort.

Clearly, declaring the Government of National Accord operational without adherence to the Libya Political Agreement terms will leave it and the Presidency Council open to, at the very least, legal action from oil buyers who have already contracted with the east and, more generally, from a number of institutions and entities in and outside the country.

Supporters of the now official US-sanctioned Khalifa al-Ghwell and his Tripoli regime and the equally-invalid General National Congress say they intend to ask the Libyan Supreme Court to rule on the legality of the Libya Political Agreement.

Pro-House of Representatives lawyers, separately, are bound to also pursue their own legal action.

In this scenario, the whole Libya Political Agreement/Government of National Accord project will inevitably collapse.

To make matters worse, in Libya’s present divide, the question of who liberates Sirte from IS is becoming a local obsession. Haftar has gained kudos and strength in the east for clearing much of Benghazi of extremists – although there is still fighting in Gwrsha and some pockets of resistance in Sabri and Suq Al-Hout – Haftar knows that if he goes on to liberate Sirte, such victory would greatly undermine the position of both western puppets, the Presidency Council and the Government of National Accord as well as the international community itself, which inexplicably insists that the two enemies – Tripoli and Tobruk – will magically bond as brothers in a fight against Isis. Further fantasy.

America’s ineffectual Libyan point man, Jonathan Winer, has thrown in his two cents worth saying it is a must that “Misurata Military Council”, in truth militias, have “joint command” to fight Isis in Sirte. Nonsense because Haftar’s men from the army are already doing that – leave the job of destroying Isis to the Libyan National Army.

Its extremely naive of the US and the UK to think that fighting Isis will bring the east and west of Libya together.

That Haftar is the only player with real air power is an important fact that should not be forgotten.

Countries such as Russia, Egypt and the UAE, which are watching the Libyan situation closely, are preparing for the next stage of Libya’s trajectory. Moscow, Cairo and Abu Dhabi appear very unhappy with the Libyan split and the pending clashes in Sirte plus the echo effect of discord between the country’s regions.

Furthermore, there is the continuing impact of an African refugee  ‘invasion’ of Europe as we watch Libya descend into greater chaos.

Sounds like a mega-upheaval is about to occur both in Europe and on Libya’s three dimensional chessboard.

The West’s overt support of its own creation, the Government of National Accord, needs to recognise that its propensity to not practise impartiality when it comes to the democratically-elected House of Representatives, whether real or perceived, has led to an imbalance that in itself is the most threatening factor inhibiting unity in Libya.

Richard Galustian is a security analyst.