The United States is expected to become the most competitive manufacturing nation over the next five years, with the current leader, China, slipping into second position, according to the 2016 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index (GMCI) report from Deloitte and the US Council on Competitiveness.

The prediction is based on an in-depth analysis of survey responses from more than 500 chief executive officers and senior leaders at manufacturing companies throughout the world. As in the 2010 and 2013 reports, the executives ranked 40 countries in terms of their current and future manufacturing competitiveness and also rated the top drivers of global manufacturing competitiveness.

“Made in the USA is making a big comeback,” said Deborah Wince-Smith, president and CEO of the US Council on Competitiveness. “Contrary to the view that manufacturing is falling behind the times, the study points to a manufacturing future characterised by advanced technologies and growth through innovation. Manufacturing is sustainable, smart, safe, and surging – and America is expected to be among the leaders in this industry transformation.”

CEOs say that advanced manufacturing technologies are a key to unlocking future competitiveness. Predictive analytics, the network connectivity of common objects known as the “Internet of Things” (IoT), smart products and smart factories that are helping to define “Industry 4.0”, and advanced materials are viewed by executives as crucial to global manufacturing competitiveness.

“The US is currently among the top nations unlocking advanced manufacturing technologies including smart, connected products and factories, predictive analytics, and advanced materials that are core to future competitiveness,” said Craig Giffi, vice chairman, Deloitte LLP in the US and Deloitte US automotive sector leader. “The US excels at creating connections and synergy between people, technology, capital, and organisations to form a cohesive ecosystem of innovation, generating tremendous value from investments in research and development.”

In the 2016 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index country rankings, regional clusters of strength emerge with North America and Asia dominating the competitive landscape. Three North American countries – US, Mexico and Canada – rank in the top 10 and are expected to remain there in the next five years. In the Asia Pacific region, five nations are expected to be in the top 10 by 2020 – China, Japan, India, Korea, and Taiwan – which only leaves two spots open for Germany and the United Kingdom to represent Europe in the top 10 by 2020.

Of the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China), only China is viewed by the respondents as a top 10 manufacturing country in 2016. Brazil fell from 8th in 2013 to 29th in 2016 while Russia fell from 28th in 2013 to 32nd in 2016. But, India, although currently ranked 11th, is expected to jump to the number five spot by 2020.

Another theme highlighted in the report is the rise of the Asia Pacific nations Malaysia, India, Thailand, Indonesia, and Vietnam (known by the acronym MITI V, or the “Mighty 5”).

All of these countries are expected to be included in the top 15 nations by 2020 and could represent a “New China” in terms of low-cost labour, agile manufacturing capabilities, favourable demographic profiles, as well as market and economic growth.

In addition to the country ranking, CEOs identified the top drivers of manufacturing competitiveness. Talent was the leading driver with focus on the quality and availability of highly skilled workers that facilitate a shift towards innovation and advanced manufacturing strategies.

Almost three in four executives ­– 73 per cent – believe that Germany is “extremely competitive” on talent, followed by Japan at 67 per cent, and the United States at 66 per cent; these countries represent the top three most competitive nations on talent.

Executives ranked cost competitiveness as the second most influential driver of overall competitiveness, followed by productivity, supplier networks, and legal and regulatory systems to round out the top five factors.

“In order to be globally competitive, talent has to be a top priority on the agendas of manufacturing companies,” says Tim Hanley, Deloitte Global Leader for Consumer & Industrial Products Industry group.

“Companies will need to be tuned into the needs of Millennials and the Generation Z workforce and use differentiated talent acquisition models and strategic retention strategies.”

Drivers of global manufacturing competitiveness