If the British voted to leave the EU, it would result in a second referendum in Scotland, which would probably result in it leaving the United Kingdom, former Lib-Dem leader Paddy Ashdown warned the audience at The Economist’s conference being held at the Portomaso Conference Centre this morning.

Lord Ashdown, a passionate voice within the ‘Stay’ movement, said Brexit would eventually lead to the dismantling of the United Kingdom, leaving England on its own.

“Our future is not to hide behind a fortress wall shouting insults at foreigners,” he said, adding that in spite of the predictions of various polls on a sway towards ‘Stay’, he had no confidence about the outcome of the June 23 referendum.

“There is a grumpiness in people which has been fed by right-wing foreign owned media, which has never been successfully countered by politicians,” he said.

He also forecast severe internal conflicts within the Labour and Conservative parties should Britain leave the EU, as well as fresh impetus to the voices on the mainland who wanted disintegration of the Union.

The theme of disintegration also dominated the speech by former Italian prime minister Mario Monti, who said, however, that this would not be the result of separation – such as Grexit or Brexit – but rather of implosion from growing acrimony between people and their governments, who they felt were being driven by short term incentives.

“Political leaders are becoming political followers, driven not even by their need to be re-elected after a few years, but only seeing as far as the next public opinion poll…” he lamented.

Political leaders are becoming political followers, driven not even by their need to be re-elected after a few years, but only seeing as far as the next public opinion poll

The conference, on the theme of Mediterranean leadership, started with a session on the common future of Europe, North Africa and the Middle East, and Syria naturally featured prominently in the speeches. Lord Ashdown and former US assistant secretary of State James Rubin had a heated debate on the role of Russia in Syria, with the former adamant that “high explosives” would not be enough to solve the issue and that Russian and even Iran had to be brought into an alliance.

 “After Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya, haven’t we learned anything? The West is reaching the end of its power to affect the outcomes of conflict. It is foolish to think that Western intervention can work!” he said.

Mr Rubin pointed out that there had not been any Western intervention in Syria – and that it was wrong to tie the issues of removing Assad and of tackling ISIS together.

Mr Rubin dedicated much of his speech to lambasting the “simplistic” foreign policy of Republican presidential hopeful Donald Trump, saying it should be obvious that it could not work to assume that deals could be struck through force of will as America’s partners had their own national interests and deals had to be the result of negotiation.

The conference was opened by President Marie Louise Coleiro, who gave the audience an impassioned plea to “make peace your business”. 

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