US President Barack Obama, on a farewell visit to the UK, has made it abundantly clear that America strongly supports Britain’s continued membership of the European Union, and that a Brexit would be a dangerous leap in the dark that would lessen the country’s global influence.
Speaking at a joint news conference with Prime Minister David Cameron, Obama said the US “wants Britain’s influence to grow, including within Europe”.
He added: “The UK is at its best when it’s helping to lead a strong European Union. It leverages UK power to be part of the EU. I don’t think the EU moderates British influence in the world, it magnifies it.”
Obama’s comments are important for two main reasons. The first is that the US President is popular with the British public and so his views could help boost the Yes camp. The second reason is that Obama rubbished the claim made by the some members of the No camp that the UK’s exit from the EU could be replaced by Britain’s ‘special relationship’ with the US.
On the possibility of a trade deal between the US and Britain in the event of a Brexit, for example, Obama said: “I think it’s fair to say that maybe some point down the line there might be a UK-US trade agreement, but it’s not going to happen any time soon because our focus is in negotiating with a big bloc, the European Union, to get a trade agreement done. The UK is going to be in the back of the queue.”
Prior to his arrival in London, Obama wrote an article in The Daily Telegraph that pointed out that being in the EU magnified Britain’s influence across the world, and that the UK had benefitted from being inside the EU in terms of jobs, trade and financial growth.
“This kind of co-operation – from intelligence sharing and counter-terrorism to forging agreements to create jobs and economic growth – will be far more effective if it extends across Europe. Now is a time for friends and allies to stick together,” he wrote.
Shortly before Obama’s visit to Britain, eight former US treasury secretaries signed a letter in The Times (of London) urging Britain to remain in the EU or risk opening a “Pandora’s box” of problems for the world’s economy. The letter stated that the EU is Britain’s “best hope, in our view, for securing Britain’s future, creating a more prosperous Europe and protecting a healthy and resilient global economy”.
It is amply clear, therefore, that the US understands that a Brexit is in nobody’s interest, and could cause an international crisis, which is the last thing the world needs right now. Hopefully, UK public opinion, which tends to feel an affinity for the US, will listen to its American friends and do the right thing, namely vote to remain in the EU.
Nearly all the opinion polls point to the economic argument as the main factor behind the lead by the Yes camp
The polls seem to point that way, although the result will be quite close and will depend on voter turnout. The latest poll, conducted by ORB International for The Daily Telegraph, shows that the Yes camp has witnessed an increase in support, and if the referendum was held today, 52 per cent of voters would choose to remain in the EU, 43 per cent would vote to leave and five per cent are undecided.
If this poll is correct it shows that most people have made up their minds on how to vote, and if the five per cent undecided vote is split evenly between the two camps, then the result should be 54.5 per cent in favour and 45.5 per cent against. Such a result would be a comfortable victory for the Yes camp – although in reality, the margin in favour of remaining in the EU should be much larger.
Although there are many important political, security and global considerations that should convince the British electorate to vote in favour of keeping their country in the EU – such as Britain losing a great deal of influence on the world stage, the destabilisation and weakening of Europe, the possible breakup of the UK, a renewed cycle of violence in Northern Ireland and a weakened fight against terrorism – in the event of a Brexit – nearly all the opinion polls point to the economic argument as the main factor behind the lead by the Yes camp.
This is why Obama’s statement that a trade deal between Washington and London in the event of a Brexit would not be a priority for the US could prove to be influential in the referendum.
The economic argument for remaining within the bloc is indeed a powerful one. The UK Treasury’s recently published analysis of what would happen in the event of a Brexit concluded that Britain will be worse off by £4,300 a year per household if it leaves the EU, and UK GDP would be 6.2 per cent lower outside the EU after 15 years.
The International Monetary Fund also recently warned that the UK’s exit from the European Union could cause “severe regional and global damage”, and a Brexit would disrupt established trading relationships and cause “major challenges” for both the UK and the rest of Europe.
Hopefully, the polls will continue to show the Yes camp leading, and Britain’s electorate will make the right choice in June’s referendum and vote to remain part of the EU. It is important that the turnout is high; a low turnout will inevitably favour the No camp.