At the EU summit on migration a month ago, a controversial agreement was struck with Turkey whereby all migrants travelling from Turkey to the Greek Islands would be detained in Greece and deported back to Turkey within weeks. But the plan – essentially designed to close the Balkan route into Germany – may already be unravelling and is understandably being criticised for being a political decision not backed up by realistic or practical action. Every element of this deal appears to be politically, legally, administratively or morally fraught.
It is unclear how long it will be before trust between Turkey and the EU crumples. If the ceasefire in Syria falls apart, or if Libya’s instability spreads, then the picture will be transformed as the other uncontrolled routes into Europe through the central Mediterranean are reopened leaving the EU trying to staunch an influx on two fronts.
Indeed, this may already be happening. About 20,000 migrants from sub-Saharan Africa have arrived in Italy from North Africa so far this year, a huge increase on the same period in 2015. The surge has raised fears that Italy will have to accommodate up to 270,000 new arrivals this year, especially if Syrian refugees trapped unwillingly in Turkey switch to the North African route.
Malta is clearly very vulnerable to any such major upsurge through the central Mediterranean. Indeed, it is remarkable that it has been spared the pressures which have hit Sicily and Sardinia. It would be helpful if the Minister for Home Affairs and National Security were prevailed upon to make a statement to the House on what the agreement, if any, with Italy entails and how Malta plans to withstand any future major influx which might arise. This is pertinent given that the naval operation, known as “Sophia” and patrolling very close to the Libyan coast, is apparently spending more time rescuing migrants from the waters than catching traffickers at sea as originally intended.
Conscious of Greece’s continuing struggle to contain the crisis in the eastern Aegean, and aware that the route through the central Mediterranean is being prised open again, the European Commission, under Vice President Frans Timmerman, is seeking further radical reforms of EU asylum policy.
His proposals for a common EU asylum policy system include, most significantly, a scheme to relocate refugees across Europe either automatically, or as a temporary measure when a country is overwhelmed. Both options would mean important changes to the discredited Dublin regulations, which have been a bone of contention for frontline states such as Malta, Italy and Greece.
While adoption of the first alternative – which received a boost with the overwhelming passage of a non-binding resolution by MEP Roberta Metsola in the European Parliament on Tuesday – would strike a blow for equity, order and burden-sharing throughout the Union, it is unlikely that eastern and central European states – which have been notorious throughout last year’s immigration crisis for putting their strongly held self-interest before the wider common good of the Union – will agree.
Malta and other front-line states are likely to have to make do with the second – albeit less satisfactory – option. The best that might be achieved is agreement to the adoption of a temporary “corrective fairness mechanism” which, it must be hoped, would be triggered at a low level of emergency.
The future for Europe’s control of immigration looks bleak.