The fluid and dangerous situation in Libya needs to be clearly explained. Not only are observers confused but so are policymakers. Stakeholders are asking themselves: what exactly is the UN-mandated Government of National Accord doingin Tripoli? What is this perilousgame unfolding?
One must also ask: why are mainstream newspapers not telling the true story? Because they are neophytes who don’t understand the complexity of the situation. They are spoon-fed information and churn out reporting like stenographers that is as useless as can possible be.
So far, the GNA has zero authority.
Seven out of nine Presidential Council members, including GNA Prime Minister Fayyez Serraj, are in Tripoli trying to gain a foothold of governance. Their arrival, by Italian frigate, followed by a spate of reports about where Serraj and his cronies were exactly, fleeing back to Tunisia or elsewhere, is almost comical except it isn’t.
The tragedy unfolding is over frozen money in the Libyan Investment Authority and the Central Bank of Libya. These Tripoli-based Libya Dawn cretins still hold their own political agenda that has nothing to do with a new Libya.
The December 2015 Libyan political agreement states that the House of Representatives in Tobruk has to agree on the Presidential Council of the nine UN chosen men, which includes the UN-selected Serraj. Then, according to the LPA document, Serraj is supposed to select - emphasis on select - the cabinet of ministers so to say the GNA would then be in place in Libya if all there, that is.
The confusing explanation process is intentionally provided to mislead and rush through the financial ‘freedom’ of the LIA and the CBL, which are headed by two dubious characters. Libyan Oil Company CEO Mustafa Sanallah and Sadiq El-Kabir have both taken charge of their institutions as independent fiefdoms without the GNA (which still doesn’t exist, remember) actually saying anything about their moves. Talk about ungovernability. But, wait a minute. Libyan UN Ambassador Ibrahim Dabbashi says Hassan Bouhadi is the UN-recognised head of the LIA. The fight over LIA is now complete and rife with competing interests.
There’s more. Just with Panamagate hitting British Prime Minister David Cameron and his minions, it should be noted that there are rumours that some privileged Brits are betting on the UN-imposed GNA for personal reasons.
It is perhaps time to say goodbye to Libya as a unified State
Sanallah has deals with Glencore and Vitol to sell Libyan oil. Let’s note the US is potentially implicated too: Glencore is the company set up by Marc Rich, the man pardoned by then outgoing president Bill Clinton. Perhaps the press should be wondering about this unreported angle in this new age of compliance.
This farcical drama is creating a fluid situation in Libya. Factions, cities, militias continue declaring they are for or against the UN-backed government. The UN Ambassador to Libya, Martin Kobler, ridiculously says there are four governments in Libya including Isis in Sirte.
Libya Grand Mufti Sadiq Ghariani “advised” Serraj and his representatives to leave the capital or face “grave consequences.” While this scandal unfolds,Isis is finding time to hit a few oil facilities, namely the Al-Bayda oil field which is located near Zilla in eastern Libya.
Enter Khalifa Haftar, the Libyan general who will take none of this rubbish. Libyan Petroleum Forces Guard Brigade 152 has bolted from Ibrahim Jidran to join Haftar. So much for those who ‘bought’ Jidran.
To boot, regular armed forces commanders from eastern Libya and a number from the south and west, including Libyan national army’s Colonel Idris Madi, Brigadier General Abdusssalam Al Hassi, and Zintani military leaders, gathered in Marj for discussions with Haftar and the army’s high command about the situation in the country since the arrival of the UN-endorsed Presidential Council in Tripoli. Joining the meeting is Ali Gatrani and Cyrenaican (East Libya) tribal leaders, majors and members of the HoR in Tobruk.
This is a critical moment of unity for the east and illustrates the coming push by the east to dominate the west and buck the UN-imposed government.
Hazardous to say the least.
The centrifugal forces unleashed by misguided Western steps in Libya is opening the gates of hell in Libya. It is perhaps time to say goodbye to Libya as a unified State.
To be sure, Haftar is meeting with HoR president Ageela Saleh in an effort to rally forces behind the HoR to ensure that commanders and units do not start working with the GNA nor the Presidential Council, nor Serraj until the HoR approves.
Hell will likely freeze over before this outcome is likely.
Haftar and his allies are seeing that outside interference is dominating the crisis in Tripoli and money isn’t the issue; Libyan pride is at stake and selfishness is tantamount to treason against the spirt of the Libyan peoples.
Richard Galustian is a security analyst.