On May 13 last year, the EU launched a plan – the ‘Agenda on Migration’ – which was high on ambition and headline-grabbing rhetoric, but low on actual delivery. Ten months down the line, the Agenda on Migration is history.
The plan to introduce a mandatory relocation of asylum seekers who reach Europe, based on a quota mechanism (so that the burden of processing refugees is shared more equally between EU nations), has disappeared into the Brussels ether. A legislative proposal for the introduction of a permanent system of “responsibility-sharing between states” is dead in the water.
The grandstanding by the High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Federika Mogherini, about the deployment of European warships off the coast of Libya under a UN mandate from the Security Council “to target people-smugglers and to disrupt their business model” has sunk without trace.
But EU officials are nothing if not persistent. At the EU summit a fortnight ago a controversial agreement was struck with Turkey whereby all migrants travelling from Turkey to the Greek Islands would be detained in Greece after midnight of March 18 – the date of signing the agreement – and deported back to Turkey within weeks.
Under the deal, the EU will grant asylum to one Syrian from a refugee camp in Turkey for each Syrian sent back to Turkey from Greece, up to a limit of 72,000 places. Deportations were planned to begin two days ago, following changes to Greek law and a massive EU police and border guard operation to help Greece detain and process the 1,300 migrants arriving on their islands every day. The forcible deportation of thousands of people from Greece has the makings of a logistical nightmare as events in the primary host town of Kilis, the Turkish border town, have already shown.
Ominously, just as the deal was being struck – shutting, it was hoped, one migrant route into Europe – the EU’s foreign policy high representative was warning that up to half a million displaced people could be on the point of sailing to Europe from Libya.
It has not happened yet, but as the weather continues to improve and the turmoil in Libya continues to unsettle the whole of northern Africa, this added pressure on Europe cannot long be held off. The desperate boatloads of people fleeing through the central Mediterranean may soon be a significant problem, with Malta and Italy in the front line again.
Refugees fleeing the carnage of Syria will inevitably use alternative routes into Europe, including through Libya. This will happen not only because of the problems all across the Maghreb, but also because of weakening southern borders that will encourage migrants to head for Europe from sub-Saharan Africa.
An intrinsic part of the deal struck between the EU and Turkey two weeks ago, is an agreement to accelerate Turkey’s EU membership talks – despite Cyprus’s veto remaining intact, reinforced by strong reservations from both France and Austria. Visa-free travel in the Schengen area for up to 90 days will be given to 75 million Turks by the end of June. This deadline will almost certainly slip as the EU wants Turkey to meet 72 conditions on visa liberalisation before agreeing to visa-free travel.
Barbed wire, metal fences and life under plastic sheeting now mark the new social geography of Europe
Nevertheless, by ceding visa-free travel for Turkish citizens at the height of a migrant crisis, the EU will further increase migration. A deal that was intended to reduce immigration into Europe may end up having the opposite effect.
It is nearly 30 years since Turkey first applied to become a member of the EU. When negotiations began in earnest in 2005, it was made clear to Turkey that it would not be admitted until it had demonstrably made a serious attempt at “democratisation” and improvement in its dismal record on human rights. Since then, the country has gone backwards in these respects. President Tayyip Erdogan’s recent behaviour – encouraged by the EU’s pusillanimity – suggests he no longer fears censure from the Union.
The whole EU package comes with a €6 billion sweetener to Turkey to help cover the costs of housing and feeding the refugees. Hungary and Slovakia have refused to take part in the proposed one-for-none migrant exchange and all the central European countries resist any form of resettlement quotas.
Rarely has Europe acted with such alacrity as it did two weeks ago. But the plan may already be unravelling and is understandably being criticised for being a triumph of fudge over reality, a political decision not backed up by realistic or practical action. Every element of this deal appears to be politically, legally, administratively or morally fraught.
It is unclear how long it will be before trust between Turkey and the EU crumples. More importantly, if the ceasefire in Syria falls apart, or if Libya’s turmoil spreads across northern Africa, then the picture will be transformed as the other uncontrolled routes into Europe through the central Mediterranean are reopened leaving the EU trying to staunch an influx on two fronts.
Human rights campaigners have expressed considerable concern about the deal. Amnesty International, conscious of the rights abuses in Turkey by an increasingly authoritarian President Erdogan and the obligation under EU law for migrants to be returned only to “safe” countries, has called it “a dark day for Europe and a dark day for humanity”.
They are shocked that the EU has made such a generous offer to Erdogan, who has shown nothing but contempt for Europe’s values and is concurrently undermining the independence of Turkey’s courts and media.
Nevertheless, there is no escaping that, for all its fudges and faults, the agreement struck a fortnight ago to stem the flow of refugees from the Middle East was an attempt to bring some order to a Europe overwhelmed by the mass movement of people fleeing wars. Even if implemented, however, it is unlikely to prove more than a finger in the dyke. It does little to address the pent-up movement of population shifts wishing to get into Europe, either because they are fleeing war or persecution, or simply because they are seeking a better life.
The handling of the refugee influx has not been Europe’s finest hour. The migrant numbers have exposed the EU’s inability to tackle the crisis in a coherent manner. Tragically, barbed wire, metal fences and life under plastic sheeting now mark the new social geography of Europe. Migration has become the most significant political challenge of our times.
The problem is bigger than Syria alone. At the heart of it lie the demographic pressures, economic and political instability in North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa, and the caravan of humanity heading north.
Dealing with it is the greatest challenge to Europe’s future. But it would be manifestly wrong to treat this as an open-ended European commitment. Migration and the effects of the demographic time bomb on Europe’s doorstep are a global problem requiring global solutions.
The United Nations plenary summit on immigration in September offers an opportunity for Europe to press for a global response. The EU has five months to bring all its diplomatic muscle to bear on it. It must now set its sights firmly on seeking a coordinated global solution on migration. This may well be its last hope.