The arrival of a million refugees in Europe in 2015 is roughly four times the number who arrived the year before. But a million is just the start. What the continent cannot withstand is an unfettered influx, driven by an exodus from North Africa and beyond.
Since the start of the Syrian civil war five years ago, 4.5 million Syrians have fled to neighbouring countries. More than half of them are in Turkey. But the crisis is not confined to Syria.
Turmoil in Libya is unsettling the whole of North Africa. The flotillas of boats through the central Mediterranean will soon be a serious problem again, not just because of the 450,000 displaced people in Libya but also because of weakening borders that encourage migrants from Sub-Saharan Africa.
The European Union struggled last week to enrol Turkey in a broad coalition to stem the flow of refugees from the Middle East. It was an attempt to bring a kind of order to a Europe overwhelmed by the mass movement of people fleeing wars. Under the terms of the scheme, Turkey has agreed to accept undocumented refugees turned away by Greece. Some EU countries – by no means all - will take one Syrian from Turkey for every illegal migrant returned there from Greece in a so-called migrant exchange scheme.
In an attempt to sugar the pill, Turkey will receive billions of euros in EU funds to house and feed them. It will also receive visa-free access for its nationals within Europe’s passport-free Schengen area and swifter action to process its application to join the EU, a move criticised by countries which are not in favour of allowing any shortcuts to membership for Turkey.
The deal with Turkey is a sticking plaster solution that does little to address the long-term shifts in population towards Europe. Migration has become a global international emergency in a world overwhelmed by massive displacements of people. It has become the greatest political challenge of the 21st century.
But the EU’s latest ‘agreement’ with Turkey has to be capable of doing more than manage a significant and embarrassing political problem. The migrant problem has exposed not only the world’s vulnerability to unresolved global wars but also Europe’s inability to tackle the crisis in a coordinated manner.
The disagreements between European countries have exposed the confusion. Greece complains it has become a gigantic holding pen for Europe. The central European countries resist any form of resettlement quotas. Humanitarian agencies have warned that forced deportations would be illegal and socially unprincipled. Other countries have different views and priorities.
If peace does not return soon to Syria, and if so-called Islamic State is not brought under control, the migration wave into Europe will be redoubled. The EU must address all the vulnerable gateways into Europe, strengthening not simply Greece but Italy and Malta too. It should negotiate with all its neighbours, not just Turkey, to arrange for the vetting and sifting of refugees and migrants before they actually arrive on European soil.
Entry criteria have to be set and adhered to and upper limits for acceptance established. The present arrangements with Turkey are destined to be no more than a finger in an already porous dyke unless the EU discovers within itself the political will to look beyond narrow national self-interest. The great migration may be only just beginning.