Brexit – leap in the dark

A leap in the dark - that is how David Cameron, the British Prime Minister, described a possible vote by the British electorate in the June referendum in favour of the UK leaving the European Union. Cameron’s deal with Brussels covers four main areas.

Emergency brake – This consists of a four-year freeze on in-work benefits for EU citizens working in the UK when there are ‘exceptional’ levels of migration. ‘Exceptional’ has not been defined. The UK will be able to operate the breaks for seven years. Because of the concern of four EU countries in the east – Poland, Slovakia, Czech Republic and Hungary - Cameron had to concede that these changes do not apply to EU workers already in Britain.

Child benefits – These will now be indexed to the cost-of-living for children living outside the UK. Cameron initially wanted to stop all payments of child benefits going to children living outside the UK and whose parents were working in the UK, but had again to give in to the final agreed formula following strong opposition from the same four eastern EU countries.

The agreed formula could prove to be too complicated to implement as it depends on the provision of correct information on several thousands of individuals living outside the UK.

The British public, acccording to the latest polls, is deeply divided

Stronger protection for EU countries outside the eurozone – Cameron wanted non-Eurozone countries in the EU to be able to halt new regulations for the eurozone from coming into force automatically to enable further discussions by all members. Cameron wanted to protect London’s special status as a world fianancial centre by being able to apply breaks where necessary on eurozone decisions. France was especially sensitive on this issue and Cameron had to concede that no EU country would have the power to veto such regulations, but could only delay their coming into force.

“Ever-closer union among the peoples of Europe” – This declaration agreed in June 2014 by member states did not apply to the UK. However, Cameron wanted something even stronger as regards the UK. What he got instead was a kind of wishy-washy wording that stated that the EU “... recognised that the UK is not committed to further political integration in the European Union”. It , therefore, merely states a known fact which could simply be disregarded by any future UK government that has different ideas from Cameron.

On his return from Brussels, Cameron declared outside Number 10 that with the new deal “Britain will be safer, stronger and better off ”.

The EU question became a major bone of contention in the run-up to the 2015 elections. The Conservative Party, asis generally known, had been deeply divided for decades on the questionof the continued British membership of the EU. Both Thatcher and, after her, Major were faced with unrest (at times reaching rebellion level) from the backbenches and party stalwarts throughout their premierships.

In the current situation, at least six Cabinet ministers, including prominent ministers like Ian Duncan Smith and Michael Gove, have indicated that theywill be joining the ‘leave the EU’ campaign. To make matters worse for Cameron,Boris Johnson, the Conservative mayorof London, has criticised the deal by Cameron for being weak and fallingshort of meaningful change on issueslike sovereignty.

Johnson, however, shot himself in the foot and confirmed his buffonish persona by stating that “there is only one way to get the change [in the EU] we need, and that is to vote to go”.

The resultant question of many was: “How can you influence change if you’re out of the organisation?”

Cameron described it in Parliament amidst laughter as good enough “for the birds”. The opposition Labour Party is generally in favour of continued membership of the EU and some of its grandees, past and present, will be leading the pro-Europe campaign.

Big business, including major banks, multinationals, the whole of the financial sector, and credit rating agencies, support staying in the EU. The British public, acccording to the latest polls, is, however, deeply divided. Analysis of the polling suggest that young voters tend to support remaining in the EU whereas older voters tend to support leaving (perhaps the latter are still dreaming of the vanished empire).

Of much more risk if the ‘leave the EU’ vote wins is the constitutional turbulance that may result following Britain’s exit. Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has warned that a vote to leave the EU would for certain open a campaign for another independence referendum in Scotland and this time around the ‘yes’ vote would almost certainly win by a large majority.

Will this be the first step towards the disintegration of the UK as we know it?

Both Northern Ireland and Wales are enthusiastic about continued EU membership having benefited to a very large extent from that association, but what happens in Scotland might of itself trigger some deep soul-searching about the nation’s constitutional set-up. The stakes are indeed very high and nothing can be taken for granted as the 2014 Scottish referendum has amply shown.