British Prime Minister David Cameron will only have won a third of the battle if tonight he gets fellow EU leaders to agree on a deal giving his country special concessions.
Mr Cameron will be making his case at a Brussels summit that will have on its agenda the UK’s request for a new deal redefining its EU membership. This is likely to overshadow the item on the agenda; migration – which is a very divisive topic.
The deal is crucial for Mr Cameron to be able to convince a skeptical British public that the UK will be better off in the EU when they vote in an in-out referendum, possibly in four months’ time.
But securing the deal is a big ‘if’ and one that hinges on the goodwill of at least four Eastern European countries wary of the UK’s demand to be able to freeze benefits for EU migrants.
Technocrats have been working hard behind the scenes to try and reconcile Mr Cameron’s four demands with the concerns of other EU member states. Any suggestion that the summit’s agenda will tackle a Brexit – British exit from the EU – is immediately met by a diplomatic “not exactly”.
Malta's European Affairs Minister Louis Grech told the EU General Affairs Council on Tuesday that the EU and the UK would be far stronger together.
Member states, he said, would do their utmost to ensure an equitable and acceptable solution on the UK's proposals for a new settlement to be reached but there had to be a level playing field for all.
He said there had to be a fine balancing act between flexibility and rigidity as it was becoming increasingly obvious that there was no specific solution that answered all disparate needs and wants.
Sources in Brussels have told the Times of Malta the mood is anything but one that favours a UK exit. Leaders will do anything to give Mr Cameron a deal he could work with, the sources said, even if it means dragging on the talks into the early hours of tomorrow.
The summit starts today at 5pm and is supposed to end tomorrow. If no UK deal is reached an emergency summit will be held in a few weeks time.
But if Mr Cameron does get the arrangement he hopes for, the deal would still require legislative changes that the European Parliament will vote on. This will weaken Mr Cameron’s hand since it means any deal struck today or tomorrow will not be cast in stone. European Parliament president Martin Schulz has said parliament would work constructively but he could not guarantee approval. “This is not possible in a democracy,” he said, outlining a basic democratic fact.
Mr Cameron’s biggest hurdle will be convincing a deeply sceptical British public and members of his own Conservative Party that Britain would be better off inside the EU.
With an in-out referendum expected for June – if the deal is reached – many in Europe will be waiting in angst to see what road British voters will take.
What reforms is the UK seeking?
David Cameron wants to renegotiate the terms of the UK’s membership ahead of a referendum to be held latest by the end of 2017. He has said he will campaign for Britain to remain in the EU if he gets the reforms he wants. He has four main demands.
• Economic governance: The UK wants safeguards that steps to further financial union cannot be imposed on non-eurozone members and the UK will not have to contribute to eurozone bailouts.
• Competitiveness: Setting a target for the reduction of excessive regulation and extending the single market.
• Immigration: Restricting access to in-work and out-of-work benefits to EU migrants. An option of an “emergency brake” to stop the payments for four years is being discussed as a compromise deal
Sovereignty: Allowing Britain to opt out from the EU's founding ambition to forge an "ever closer union" of the peoples of Europe so it will not be drawn into further political integration. Giving greater powers to national parliaments to block EU legislation.