The Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary in the US presidential race have taken place and the field of candidates with a realistic chance of winning their parties’ nomination has narrowed considerably. The results of these two elections also point to voter frustration with the American political establishment, a swing towards non-mainstream populist candidates and in the case of the Republican Party a very worrying right-wing trend.
On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton, who has the support of the party establishment, won the Iowa caucus by the slimmest of margins, 49.9 per cent compared to 49.6 per cent for Bernie Sanders, who calls himself a democratic Socialist. In the New Hampshire primary, however, Sanders easily won the contest with 60 per cent of the vote, compared to 38.9 per cent for Clinton. It is likely that the battle for the Democratic nomination will be a long-drawn-out contest between these two candidates.
In the Republican race the Iowa caucus was won by Ted Cruz with 27.6 per cent, followed by Donald Trump with 24.3 per cent and Marco Rubio with 23.1 per cent. Cruz is a right-wing ideologue, Trump is a right-wing populist and Rubio is also a right-winger, but is perhaps not as rigid as Cruz.
None of the Republican moderates, such as Jeb Bush, Chris Christie or John Kasich did well in Iowa. In New Hampshire, however, the primary was won by Trump with 35 per cent, followed by Kasich (16 per cent), Cruz (12 per cent), Bush (11 per cent), Rubio (11 per cent) and Christie (seven per cent) – who has since withdrawn from the race.
The Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary are important because as the first contests in the US presidential election they give momentum to the leading candidates and narrow down the field of candidates. However, it needs to be stressed that these two states are not really representative of America. Iowa is a small rural state whose small population is overwhelmingly white, of German and Scandinavian origin, and conservatively Christian – which explains why Cruz won the Republican race. New Hampshire’s population is even smaller than that of Iowa, is also overwhelmingly white and has many liberal voters – which explains why Sanders won the Democratic contest, besides the fact, of course, that he is a Senator from neighbouring Vermont.
The leading contenders for the Republican race still remain Trump and Cruz, who are not liked by the Republican Party establishment, and I would like to believe that either of them as the party nominee would lose to both Clinton and Sanders.
Rubio, who did well in Iowa and was considered by the establishment to be the more reasonable face of the conservative right-wing drift of the party, did badly in New Hampshire after performing poorly in a television debate a few days before the vote.
Many Americans believe the US is losing respect internationally
It is clear, therefore, that there is no Republican candidate who has yet established himself as a plausible alternative to Trump and Cruz, and this is indeed worrying. Perhaps Kasich, probably the most moderate of the Republicans left in the race, and Bush will make a deal which includes one of them dropping out of the race and endorsing the other. However, such a scenario is still unlikely to be able to stop Trump and Cruz, and a lot will depend on how Rubio continues to perform.
We will have to wait and see what happens in this month’s Nevada caucuses and South Carolina primaries of both parties to get a better idea of the voting trends of the American electorate. South Carolina is an important conservative southern state and since 1980 the Republican winner of this primary has always become the party nominee in the presidential election, with the exception of Mitt Romney in 2012 who came second behind Newt Gingrich. If Rubio, a Christian conservative, does badly in South Carolina, this could spell the end of his presidential ambitions.
As for the Democrats, it will be a huge challenge for Sanders to win South Carolina considering his ‘Socialist’ label as well as the large number of African-American voters who are backing Clinton in nationwide polls.
If Clinton loses South Carolina, however, then her presidential hopes will really be in trouble. However, we should get a clearer picture of where the Democratic and Republican races are heading after ‘Super Tuesday’ on March 1, when 13 states, including six across the south, go to the polls.
What explains voters’ support for non-mainstream candidates such as Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders? Apparently a number of polls have consistently shown that a majority of Americans are either ‘very angry’ or ‘somewhat angry’ at the way things are going in the US. Many voters, furthermore, believe that the political system only works for people with money and power. The polls show that the main things Americans are angry about are the economy, immigration, the gridlock between the White House and Congress and America’s place in the world.
There is no doubt that the economy has improved under President Barack Obama who has presided over record private sector job creation, economic growth and a sharp decrease in the government deficit. However, Americans are still feeling the effects of the recession and household incomes have more or less been stagnant for the last 15 years. Many also feel that jobs are of lower quality than before. Those on the left blame the billionaires, the banks and Wall Street for this situation while those on the right blame immigrants and globalisation.
Forty years ago 84 per cent of the US population consisted of non-Hispanic white people and by last year this figure was down to 62 per cent. If the migration trends continue it is estimated that by 2055 non-Hispanic white people will make up less than half the population.
This has caused concern among some white voters, especially the older ones, who say they no longer recognise their country. In addition there are currently 11.3 million illegal migrants in the country who often become the target of people’s anger. Hence Trump’s criticism of Mexicans and Muslims.
The gridlock in Washington is another important factor in this election. Many voters feel distant from their government and those on the right believe that a ‘strong’ leader such as Trump or Cruz will put things right while those on the left feel that Sanders will radically change the system for the better.
Finally, many Americans are of the opinion that the US is losing respect internationally and that things are not going their way. This belief is fuelled by, for example, the slow progress being made in the fight against Islamic State and the Taliban, fears of a terrorist attack against America (made worse by the San Bernadino attack), the rise of China and an international trade system which some believe works against America.
Such a trend among US voters favours the right-wing candidates rather than Sanders, and Republicans such as Trump and Cruz have certainly taken advantage of this.