The ‘fourth industrial revolution’ is upon us and experts are predicting that robots may take over most jobs in the near future. Youths feel particurly at risk but Joachim James Calleja, director of the European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training, quells these fears. However, he tells Stephanie Fsadni that countries need to invest strategically in vocational education and training to avoid such a gloomy scenario.

The world is entering an era of advanced robotics, artificial intelligence and geneediting and what may be science-fiction today might become science fact by 2025, according to executives surveyed by the World Economic Forum, being held in Davos, Switzerland, this week.

The so-called ‘fourth industrial revolution’ – after steam, mass production and information technology – is expected to bring faster cycles of innovation with the promise of cheaper goods driving a new wave of economic growth. But at the same time this may pose huge challenges to companies, workers, governments and societies, with the threat of mass unemployment and rising inequalities by widening the wealth gap between developed and developing economies.

An international survey among 16- to 25-year-olds in nine of the world’s biggest nations, published this week by Indian business and software services firm Infosys, found that four out of 10 young people believe robots or smart systems will be able to do their jobs within a decade.

“Concerns that machines will be taking over people’s jobs are certainly not new,” says Joachim James Calleja, director of the European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training (Cedefop), based in Thessaloniki, Greece.

New types of skills will be needed

“Marx’s manifesto was, after all, expressing similar fears more than a century ago! Of course, in today’s world economy the fourth industrial revolution is upon us, and automation is affecting all types of jobs, both low- and high-skilled. For example, robotic surgery may be substituting medical practitioners.”

However, Calleja says that one must be careful when making claims of widespread “technological unemployment”.

“Concerns that automation is ‘stealing’ people’s jobs have been historically dispelled. While machines are and will be certainly transforming the way we work, and new occupations may substitute others – such as how graphic designers replaced typographers – automation can stimulate aggregate demand and sustain total employment levels by minimising costs for businesses.

“Workers can also benefit from the process of robotic automation as they can concentrate on more creative tasks in the workplace. Machines also increase productivity and consumption and in many cases increase the quality of life,” he claims.

The young people interviewed in the international survey said that this rapid technological change required constant learning of fresh skills. The survey also revealed that the skills gap is especially a problem in Europe, and nearly half the participants in Western countries said their education did not prepare them to do their jobs and they were not conconfident about their technical skills.

“Even if machines do not result in declining employment, new types of skills will be needed,” comments Calleja. “People will have to become proficient in key information processing skills such as learning computer languages, software analysis, critical thinking and soft skills, given that robots will not have social skills for some time –that is, until the Japanese develop more sophisticated humanoids!”

Having said that, one of the most in-demand participants in Davos this year is not a central banker, CEO or politician but a prize-winning South Korean robot called Hubo!

The young people survey did not include Malta but the problem of skills mismatch has been highlighted in recent years. The most recent apprenticeship review released by Cedefop last October concluded that Malta is experiencing a mismatch between labour force requirements and skills available.

Interviewees remarked that this problem is especially pronounced in the digital gaming and maritime sectors.

This problem may grow as by 2025, almost all new jobs created in Malta over the next decade are forecast to require high- or medium-level qualifications. Most job opportunities, around 26 per cent, will be for professional occupations in science, engineering healthcare, business and teaching, followed by 20 per cent for service and sales workers.

Cedefop data also shows that Malta lags behind the EU in educational attainment and around 29 per cent of Malta’s labour force is expected to have low-level qualifications by 2025, more than twice the 14 per cent forecast for the EU.

Calleja firmly believes that vocational educational and training (VET) is the way forward to bridge the skills gap.

“Work-based learning can help people find not just a job, but a good job. But VET is still considered in many countries as a second option or as no option whatsoever. Many learners across Europe have limited access to work-based learning, particularly in the form of apprenticeships. This is hindering many learners from benefitting from the enormous opportunity that ‘learning by doing’ and work environments present.”

He is concerned that apprenticeship schemes are not popular in Malta and outlines a number of possible reasons.

“Among companies, apprenticeship is not that popular due to a high level of competition among companies for a skilled workforce, with micro and small companies at a particular disadvantage compared to medium and large ones in attracting and keeping a skilled workforce, including apprenticeship graduates. Companies confirm their main reason for withdrawing or not offer apprenticeship placements is the fear of not recovering the investment.”

As regards learners, Calleja says they may perceive apprenticeship as a good option for acquiring a qualification and getting a job immediately after graduation but argues that the perception in Malta – as in many other member states of the EU – “is also that progression to higher levels may be difficult as apprentices are hired immediately after graduation and currently cannot combine study and work”.

He also laments that career services at schools “tend not to present technical schools as an equally valid option to general education ones” and that “parents also have reservations about apprenticeship”. He also believes that information on apprenticeship is “perceived as vague” and that potential apprentices learn about opportunities informally, mostly through word of mouth.

In his opinion, there needs to be a targeted strategy that should take into account in which sectors apprenticeship schemes are more likely to be implemented in “a quality fashion”, meaning that the training function is fulfilled, and in a cost-effective way.

“Developing high-quality apprenticeship requires a higher level of investment as compared to other VET options as it involves a closer and formal cooperation and coordination between the education and labour market actors and institutions,” Calleja says.

He points out, however, that apprenticeship schemes may work better in some sectors than in others. These include trades that are declining, as long as there is market demand (such as blacksmiths); strategic low-productive economic sectors where an adequate workforce needs to be betterqualified; and sectors facing important skill shortages.

Where apprenticeship schemes do not work, for example where workforce fluctuation is high such as in the hospitality sector, other forms of VET provision that include some form of on-the-job training experience should be considered.

“VET should be a first option and a natural one for those who are looking towards learning new skills for a labour market which is not only dynamic because of constant technological changes and the diffusion of machines at all levels of activity but also because of its unpredictable nature.

“Although it is difficult to predict to what extent machines will affect people’s jobs in future, what is certain is that the creation by man of machines and the process of learning new skills will continue to develop parallel to each other, transforming the way we work and the way we aspire for a better quality of life.”

• Mr Calleja will be delivering a talk on skills needs at the annual Mcast general conference being held on January 29. He will discuss, among others, how work-based learning can help people find not just a job but a good job.

Benefits of apprenticeships

• Apprenticeships are defined by both education and labour market representatives as paid work and training leading to a recognised qualification.

• They combine study and work, allowing individuals to acquire work experience while improving their skills in close alignment with employers’ requirements;

• They help reduce skills mismatch by being responsive to labour market change.

• They offer a stepping stone into the labour market. Apprentices receive a recognised qualification for an occupation, valid across workplaces and certifying possession of a full set of knowledge, skills and competences to perform that occupation.

• Apprenticeships may result in a job offer from the company where the training is completed.

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