The news this Christmas about flooding in northern England brought moments of reflection. It almost felt like it was happening too close to home.
For all that matters, this textbook caseof extreme weather practically coincided with the historic climate accord reachedin Paris.
On one occasion I could not help overhearing a friend of mine who, having completed his studies in York only very recently, was commenting privately about the disaster. He clearly missed his student days over there but on the other hand he thanked his lucky stars he was spared what might have been, modestly, the inconvenience of a lifetime.
The parents of another acquaintance of mine shared with me their feelings of dread while their daughter, who resides in the vicinity of the affected areas but was spending Christmastime in Malta, phoned home to check how it was.
Having to cope with these kind of situations perhaps even to the extent of losing one’s home with its precious belongings is far from easy. It is actually traumatic. Some of those affected never recover, not just financially but also emotionally.
Is human-induced climate change to blame for what has happened across large swathes of the northern UK?
The reality is that there is no straightforward answer. There are lessons to be learnt, however, simply because the UK disaster typically exemplifies what certain regions across the globe, particularly northern Europe, should expect should the planet continue heating up beyond a certain limit.
Meteorologists are linking the UK flooding event – a direct consequence from a series of violent storms deriving from over the North Atlantic - with the occurrence of so called El Nino, elsewhere in the south Pacific. Storms Desmond and Frank brought such a downpour that not only submerged riverbanks but the huge volume of water saturated the ground beyond any safe limits.
It sounds almost strange how the behaviour of the ocean waters in the remote South Pacific can affect climate on the other side of the globe and cause such havoc that PwC has estimated to the tune of around £3 billion.
But this year’s El Nino exerted its influence not just over the UK but also across the US which experienced a particularly warm winter, Australia where extensive bush fires have occurred, and also South America where tens of thousands were left homeless as a result of catastrophic flooding from heavy rains in Paraguay, Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay.
Climate experts have already labelled it, symbolically, a ‘Godzilla El Nino’, even stronger in intensity than the same phenomenon that occurred in 1997. El Nino – more technically, the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – is a naturally occurring periodic event the climatic consequences of which have also been linked to the demise of South American civilisations that are thought to have perished even before the arrival of the Spanish conquistadores in the 15th century.
Urban sprawl over many years has significantly reduced the absorptive abilities of the ground
A collapse in the trade winds seems to trigger a mechanism that forces surface ocean waters in the eastern South Pacific to warm to such an extent that the impact on atmospheric circulation currents, and hence weather systems, is global. Moreover, the El Nino cycle does not operate in isolation; it’s much less talked about northern counterpart, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), must be put into the picture.
Sophisticated computer models running thousands of simulations on climate seem to indicate that under warmer scenarios both the frequency and intensity of El Nino should be expected to increase in due course. Perhaps no rocket science is required afterall to appreciate the fact that with all those thousands of tonnes of carbon emissions released to atmosphere from fossil fuel combustion annually, compounded with historic emissions that have accumulated in the air, and which are directly responsible for planetary warming some form of disruption of El Nino is the least humanity can get.
The bottom line for those displaced in Cumbria, York and other affected areas across the UK is surely not the underlying climate science with all the nitty gritty describing how the planet’s natural cycles operate now and under warmer scenarios.
While those affected, some even having completely lost their homes, try to recover their lives it is understandable that when push comes to shove they vent their wrath at the politicians; aren’t these the ones to blame for poor flood defences that have failed if not proved completely ineffective?
Then there is the thorny issue of those who could afford insurance cover versus those who couldn’t, typifying a social class divide of modern times. Not in the UK alone. But with a disaster of such catastrophic proportions, will the insurances truly deliver to save their loyal clients from financial ruin if not the brink of poverty?
What political response was observed? There was much ado about David Cameron immediately visiting the flood prone areas compared to Jeremy Corbyn who took quite a while to make his presence felt in the hard-hit areas which are, afterall, traditional Labour constituencies.
When questioned by the press Corbyn put it that he did not want to “get in the way” while the engineers, the army and Environment Agency did their work. “Where the bloody hell’s Corbyn?” it was twittered. Political accusations fly. The extreme weather experienced in the UK with all the flaws in preparedness now being fully exposed, at the level of infrastructure and otherwise, only serves to raise one important question politicians are expected to answer: what additional financial measures need to be made available now and in the future to enable communities in flood prone areas such that they are in better position to respond and safeguard their belongings under the worst case climate scenarios?
Malta has its flooding issues too and they are well known. Msida, Birkirkara, Qormi, Attard, Lija, Balzan, Burmarrad, Marsascala, all have stories to tell especially when disaster strikes during the morning rush hour when grid-lock is practically inevitable. This ultimately also translates into an economic cost taking into account the countless hours lost as a result of late arrivals at work if not the extremity when the option to stay at home is the most sensible.
It is expected that the National Flood Relief Project should prove crucial now and in the years to come especially under climate scenarios that envisage Malta becoming more prone to occasional flash floods in the longer term as a result of a changing climate.
The works that have been underway should serve to address issues related to water management but it needs to be considered that this kind of infrastructural quick fix, costly as it may be, does not really address the problem in its totality.
The fact that more than one-third of our islands are built up areas, the highest urban density in Europe, renders our economy particularly vulnerable to severe negative impacts from flash floods, occasional as these may be. Urban sprawl over many years has significantly reduced the absorptive abilities of the ground and few would disagree that Malta’s planning record with respect to the water management efficiency of buildings leaves much to be desired.
A thorough assessment of the situation may be needed in the hope that adequate action can be taken to avert, at least, higher costs in future.
Alan Pulis specialises in environmental management.