A few years ago, when football management messiah Pep Guardiola announced he was returning to the game after his sabbatical, I asked the question: is he is really as good as we think he is?
Given last week’s announcement by the man himself that he intends to fulfil his ‘dream’ of plying his trade in the Premier League next season, I think it is pertinent to ask that question again.
As announcements go, this one will have caused sleepless night for managers at all the top English clubs, primarily because Guardiola said he has yet to decide which club to join with ‘several’ offers to choose from.
Manchester City remain favourites to secure Guardiola’s services based on the fact that several of his old Barcelona friends are now in key positions at the Etihad. You suspect they were brought in over the past couple of years to lay the groundwork for Guardiola’s arrival this summer.
But there are also other contenders too.
Chelsea are looking for a long-term (anything over a season in their context) replacement for Jose Mourinho, while Manchester United would love to have Guardiola at Old Trafford but are scared of making a move because it would embarrassing if they lost out to their ‘noisy neighbours’.
I have even heard Arsenal mentioned as a possible destination for Guardiola, although that seems highly unlikely to me. But more of that later.
This almost frenzied and embarrassing desperation to be the club that Guardiola ‘chooses’ has prompted me to once again wonder if this fuss really justified.
Let’s start with Barcelona where he made his name. Forteen trophies in four years was a brilliant achievement and he deserves a lot of credit for that. Just as he does for developing their style of play.
But let’s not forget the incredible calibre of raw materials he started with at the Nou Camp – a squad that included the likes of Victor Valdes, Carles Puyol, Xavi, Andrés Iniesta, Thierry Henry and a young lad called Lionel Messi.
Stick those players in their prime in the current Aston Villa team and not only would they avoid relegation, they might even make it to Europe. With my five-year-old son as manager.
I’m not suggesting his achievements at Barcelona weren’t good, but all he really did was take a team that won the league or Champions League every now and then and make it happen more regularly.
So what about at Bayern Munich? If you go merely on the record books, and I think that is all we can really do in this case, they will probably show that he won three titles in a row by the time he has left. And that he added another couple of cups to the trophy cabinet as well.
I think he is slightly overrated and undeserving of the mass adulation the world of football insists on showering him with
But history will also show that he hasn’t had the impact in the Champions League that was expected, only reaching two semi-finals so far.
More important than that, however, is the fact that he once again took over a successful team.
When he arrived in Germany it was hardly on a mission to revive a sleeping giant. Just a couple of months earlier, under Jupp Heynckes, the club had just become the first German team to win the treble of league, cup and European Cup.
That side was described as the best “Bayern team ever” by club legend Karl-Heinz Rummenigge. Taking over a team in that situation is not exactly a taxing proposition.
Yet over Guardiola’s three years in Germany they have not managed to replicate that level of success, despite having the ‘best’ manager in the world in charge.
In my opinion, the simple truth is that Guardiola is a fair weather manager, a coach whose main strength comes in taking over a good team and maintaining or improving their standards and building on their success.
And that is why he picks his teams very carefully.
At Barcelona he took over a squad packed with star players that had won the Champions League a couple of seasons before. At Bayern it was pretty much the same story.
And no doubt, whoever he joins in England will also be a big team with big players who don’t need much more than minor tinkering to go on a fruitful trophy run. It’s like the man’s career is being carefully stage managed to ensure he is never anything short of successful.
Don’t get me wrong, I think Guardiola is a great coach and it will be exciting to have him in the Premier League.
But equally I think he is slightly overrated and undeserving of the mass adulation the world of football insists on showering him with.
Wenger would be mad to make way for Pep
As I mentioned previously, one of the teams Guardiola has been linked with in England is Arsenal. Some have even suggested that the Emirates may actually be the perfect move for the Spaniard.
And I have to admit it does tick a few boxes – the style of play will suit him down to the ground; the squad is packed with talent; it is London-based, which is probably his city of choice; and they have a huge transfer chest waiting to be spent.
However, there is one tiny problem with this plan – an Arsene Wenger-shaped problem.
Some have suggested that Wenger may be prepared to hand the hotseat to the younger man and move upstairs in a director of football role. Especially if he were to win the title, Champions League or both this season.
And while I can see the logic in that, do you really believe Wenger is ready to hang up his tracksuit just yet?
At 66 he obviously isn’t the youngest manager around. But I am pretty sure that with his team sitting top of the table and playing some delightful football, he feels he is on the verge of replicating the success from earlier in his Arsenal career.
The current team is only going to get better next season, so why on earth would he allow some young upstart to come in and reap the rewards of his hard work? It just wouldn’t make sense.
Of course, should he fail to win any silverware this season, especially considering Arsenal’s current position of strength, then there is always the chance the board may decide to give Wenger no choice but to move upstairs.
But even in that unlikely event, I am sure Guardiola will have decided on his future long before the final ball of this season is kicked. So the ship will have sailed.
As I said before, I can see the logic that might cause some people to come to the conclusion that Guardiola and Arsenal are a marriage made in heaven.
I just don’t think Wenger and Arsenal are ready for divorce just yet.
sportscolumnist@timesofmalta.com
Twitter: @maltablade