The year that has just ended saw the political scenario in most EU member states change dramatically with fringe parties eroding the solid bases of traditional parties of the left and the right that often alternated in wielding power. This all started in earnest in Greece where the electorate, tired after a few years of austerity, turned its back on the Socialist and Popular parties and elected a government led by Syriza, a new party with hardly any significant track record.
In France, regional elections saw the Front National being crowned as the biggest party in the first round – only to be side tracked completely through tactical voting by supporters of the Socialist and Republican parties in the second round. But this extreme right wing party will not go away any time soon. It is more likely that more disgruntled people will pour scorn on the traditional parties after they cynically failed to understand why so many people where losing faith in traditional politicians.
In Italy, there were no elections in 2015, but it is clear that extreme right and left political factions are gaining in popularity based on a strategy that builds on people’s fears by proposing a list of populist tactics that will almost certainly lead to no solution, but will get the leaders of these fringe parties elected – in elections that could take place at any time. The Partito Democratico, a centre left party, is losing support according to opinion polls despite the remarkable reforms made by their charismatic leader Matteo Renzi. The Movimento 5 Stelle led by the former comedian Beppe Grillo could well overtake the PD as the Italian electorate continue to lose faith in traditional parties.
In the UK the electoral system ensured that fringe parties continue to have no significant impact in parliament, even if their support nationally is very significant. But Euroscepticism is gaining force and it is hard to predict what will happen in the June referendum that will determine whether Britain will remain a member of the EU. Even if the British electorate decides to leave, the impact on the rest of the EU will be immense.
The political scenario in most EU member states changed dramatically with fringe parties eroding the solid bases of traditional parties of the left and the right
Typically, EU bureaucrats are playing down the effect of such a divorce. Big empires do not disappear overnight, they slowly dissolve into a loose gathering of political leaders who, despite their desperate attempt to guarantee themselves a future, soon become insignificant in the eyes of ordinary people.
The latest assault on the sustainability of the EU political system as we know it today came from the Spanish electorate. In December, the Spaniards decided to discredit both the Popular and Socialist parties by making it almost impossible for any of them to form a government without the support of the anti-austerity Podemos party and the centrist Ciudadanos. If the Spanish political flu continues to spread, the EU as we know it today will face an existentialist crisis that will be difficult to resolve.
The reality behind these disturbing political developments is that the foundations of the EU itself were never really stable. The concept of a loose political union to promote trade within the same union and to preserve peace after two bloody world wars is undoubtedly attractive. But the EU of today lacks the political leadership that is needed to keep this disparate conglomeration of different countries together.
Genuine leadership has been substituted by a maze of bureaucracy and institutions within the EU where the fudging of solutions has become the real reason for their existence. Ordinary people who are either without a job, working under precarious conditions, or simply disillusioned with the behaviour of their elected representatives in Brussels and Strasbourg are prepared to take the risk of leaping into the unknown. The Spanish political flu risks becoming a pandemic if EU leaders do not come up with concrete plans to put more unemployed people in work and resolve the myriad other problems afflicting the Union. The immigration crisis and the geo-political tensions in the areas surrounding the EU borders are just other challenges that so far have not been addressed effectively.
These are slow burning problems that will just not go away unless they are tackled vigorously – something that is certainly not happening at the moment. The politicians meet regularly and tell the media that at last they have found a solution that is workable.
Time may be fast running out and the Spanish political flu may have already spread too far.
johncassarwhite@yahoo.com