In 1938, British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain returned home from Munich. He had signed an agreement with Adolf Hitler over the Sudetenland provinces in the hope of reaching a compromise for the sake of peace. Chamberlain dismissed the events unfolding in Czechoslovakia as a “quarrel in a faraway country between people of whom we know nothing”.

Echoes of this attitude still prevail. Great attention is given to issues in the great centres of power whilst the events unfolding on the peripheries are largely ignored. One need only observe the coverage of terrorist attacks; while the Paris attacks of January and November received substantial media coverage, the suicide bombings in Sana’a, Jalalabad and Beirut received little attention in the West.

They are dismissed as quarrels in ‘faraway countries’; disputes and conflicts which are perhaps part and parcel of the political fabric of such countries.

Attention is only given to these conflicts once their ramifications are felt closerto home. The events of the last yearprove that the unfolding crises in the supposed peripheries are likely to have serious repercussions.

The narratives which are pushing so many disenchanted individuals into gruesome acts of terror are being spun in areas controlled by Isis in Iraq and Syria. Isis manages to attract fighters from different parts of the globe, partly through its effective social media machinery and forceful rhetoric.

Its English-language digital magazine, Dabiq, is aimed at an international audience and spreads its warped message in an accessible and readable manner.

Unfortunately, an effective strategy to counter this threat has been conspicuous by its absence. The threat of a possible terrorist attack looms large over 2016. The unpredictability of such attacks and the violence with which they strike has put security forces on high alert.

Governments tend to shift their focus on the international dimension of the fight against terror and some will advocate military intervention.

However, military efforts in Syria have failed to yield any significant results partly due to the absence of a unified strategy and the failure of long-term planning. Russia’s role in the region needs to be questioned. The State Department has estimated that more than 90% of Russian airstrikes in Syria are targeting groups which oppose Bashar al-Assad rather than Isis targets.

A last minute deal endorsed by the United Nations has already been dismissed as unrealistic by the Istanbul-based National Coalition.

Equally significant will be the efforts to bring about some form of settlement in Libya. The attempts to form a national-unity government which brings together the Tobrouk and the Tripoli-based administrations has already been met with some scepticism by membersof both parliaments and supporters ofboth governments.

The need for a unifying force in Libya will be vital if the country is to halt its descent into chaos. The number of militiamen and the undisclosed number of weapons are still a concern.

Political debates in our societies are increasingly being shaped by conflicts in faraway places which we have continuously ignored

The Libyan economy is in ruins. Libya’s GDP shrank by 19.8% in 2014, the State employs around 80% of Libyans and private investment has decreased significantly. The United Nations estimates that 2.4 million Libyans will need humanitarian assistance.

Vacuums of power and ongoing conflict will create two situations.

Firstly, a vacuum of power creates the perfect conditions for terrorist organisations to thrive. Such organisations are not confined to Syria and Libya. Al-Shabaab controls significant parts of rural Somalia and is attempting to destabilise and terrorise neighbouring Kenya.

Prolonged conflict in Yemen is helping both Al-Qaeda and Isis. Despite the claims of Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari that Boko Haram has been effectively defeated, a Christmas Day attack killed 14 individuals in North-eastern Nigeria.

Secondly, the effects of ongoing conflict will undoubtedly encourage more people to seek a better future elsewhere. 2015 saw an unprecedented amount of individuals leaving their home countries in an attempt to start afresh in a countryfree from violent conflict and econ-omic stagnation.

As of November 2015, over one million people claimed asylum within the EU; approximately 3,695 lost their lives as they were crossing the Mediterranean.

The reaction to this movement of peoples has been mixed. The crisis ushered in a plethora of issues of a humanitarian, social and political nature which seem to be unresolved.

The crises of the previous years and the failure to address these issues will come to a head in 2016.

The challenge of counter-terrorism cannot be underestimated; it will require a balancing act between law enforcement, careful use of intelligence information and a thorough strategy whilst always being mindful of the exercise of due process.

At the start of 2016, the future of the Schengen Agreement hangs in the balance. The economic woes which dominated the debate within the Eurozone during the first half of 2015 will be overshadowed by concerns over the future of the Schengen Agreement.

Its long-term feasibility and its security implications have taken centre-stage during the migrant crisis.

These fears have been compounded in the wake of the terrorist attacks in Paris.

Fear is providing the perfect milieu for the erosion of centrist politics in both Europe and the US. In Europe, fear of economic decline, distaste of austerity politics and an uncertain future have energised a new and confident hard left which has slowly made some significant gains across the continent.

The hard nationalistic right also finds itself energised and has made significant gains in 2015. The bland brand of uninspiring centrist leadership will do nothing to reverse this trend.

The most popular story of 2016 will undoubtedly be the forthcoming US presidential election scheduled for November 8.

The emergence of Donald Trump as a serious contender for the Republican Party’s nomination has taken many by surprise. He was initially dismissed as a joke candidate whose irrational stances and vulgar manner could never be taken seriously. Regardless of whether he wins the nomination or not, polls indicate that the forthcoming election is for Hillary Clinton to lose.

As we enter 2016, political debates in our societies are increasingly being shaped by conflicts in faraway places which we have continuously ignored for far too long. To keep on treating them superficially would be sheer folly.

andre.deb@gmail.com