The United Nations special representative and head of the UN Support Mission in Libya, Martin Kobler (centre, background) looks on as the representatives of Libyan municipalities sign documents to support Libya's new national government. Photo: Zoubeir Souissi/Reuters

Libya has just marked the 64th anniversary of its independence. In 1951, King Idris came to power to unite what were three distinct areas, Cyrenaica, Tripolitania and Fezzan, after the wreckage of fascism in Europe. A former Italian possession, Libya holds the interesting distinction of being the first country to become independent through the United Nations, after a brief period of UN ‘trusteeship’.

Seems history is partially repeating itself in a modern context. Sixty-four years after King Idris began his reign, the international community, led by the UN, has established a National Unity Government (NUG) choosing themselves a Prime Minister Faiez Serraj as the leader of Libya.

UN special representative Martin Kobler wants to spin this historical link to reinforce the importance of the NUG and to gain a consensus for it. Kobler said: “Some of the lessons from the birth of Libya can help us today. Like now, Libya was then faced with the task of creating and uniting behind new common institutions.”

The day after Kobler’s speech, US President Barack Obama sent a message to the Libya people on this 64th anniversary. He said: “The United States is fully committed to working with the new Government of National Accord to address the urgent economic and counterterrorism problems facing Libya today. We stand with the Libyan people and fully support your courageous efforts to build a stable, prosperous, and peaceful Libya.”

Sounds like the US is ready to back up the NUG at all costs. Simultaneously, armed force to quell terrorist activity in Libya is still on the table. However, Permanent Libyan Ambassador to the United Nations Ibrahim Omar Dabbashi is saying that Libya will not be inviting anytime soon foreign air forces to help but instead wants General Khalifa Haftar’s Libya National Army to receive arms with the immediate lifting of the UN arms embargo on Libya to do the heavy lifting on the ground against violent extremists.

Then there was the UN’s PM Designate Faiez Serraj’s Christmas Day speech that tried to channel King Idris’s spirit. Serraj argued that: “We share a common past, in the resistance of our fathers and grandfathers against colonisation and their long battle for independence and the building of their nation.”

He added that the road ahead will be tough. “This battle [for a unity government] is a responsibility shared between all Libyans without exception. Media, civil society, businessmen, politicians, Intellectuals, tribal chiefs, dignitaries and the youth – whom we believe are the foundation of our nation-building, and above all this government.”

Sounds like the US is ready to back up the National Unity Government at all costs

Patriotic and inspiring, he concluded that it would have Libyan-wide inclusiveness. Does that sound realistic? It is notable that Serraj, unlike Obama, said zero about the extremist threat. Unfortunately, Serraj has only 30 days, according to the UN, to get his act together. Serraj is no King Idris, to put it mildly. There are a number of real time challenges in the current Libyan milieu. For one, Serraj needs to assemble and gain buy-in from Libyan stakeholders for a Presidency Council, Cabinet, House of Representatives and State Council.

However, these participants and the patrons hold onto their localisms with a firm grip that is political, religious and financial. It is, to use the old adage, just like herding cats and his Christmas Day speech did nothing to inspire any unity or even a hint of influencing the multitude of Libya’s religiopolitical spectrum.

Now there are key questions facing both Libya and Serraj.

Which way does Ibrahim Jidran from Ajdabiya jump on the oil question in Libya’s East? Support the new NUG? Or does Jidran support Hafter who needs financial aid and military provisions? If the latter, then what does Serraj do? What about Libya Dawn?

If Dawn fragments now, what will their many militias do? Tear Tripoli apart into Beirut-type fiefdoms as occurred in the 1980s? Will Misurata stay with the Tripoli-based Dawn Coalition politically or follow there famously astute business senses?

What can the Muslim Brotherhood do if their British backers, who just released the partial findings of the Sir Jenkins Muslim Brotherhood report, decline to continue support?

Will the Obama’s love affair with the Muslim Brotherhood ascend?

What do former Al Qaeda affiliate members like Abdelhakim Belhadj, Khalid Sharif, Saleh Badi, do? So many imponderables means an imminent reshuffling of the Libyan disorder.

There remains, in effect for the time being, three Libyan governments and in 30 days, the UN say, a fully-formed government will be announced. Will that make it a fourth one?

The farce caused mostly by the international community continues.

Richard Galustian is a security analyst.