The horrendous terrorist attacks that took place in Paris killing 129 people could be a turning point in the war against the so-called Islamic State, and a review of the strategy used to fight IS – military, political, diplomatic, economic, internal security, intelligence sharing – is certainly on the cards.
IS is at war with everyone who does not share its poisoned ideology. The Paris attacks came days after suicide bomb blasts in a Shi’ite Muslim district of Beirut, which killed 43 people, two weeks after the bombing of a Russian jetliner over Sinai, which killed 224 people, and five weeks after 95 people were killed by two suicide bomb attacks in Ankara. Last week the jihadists announced that they had executed two hostages, a Norwegian and a Chinese, who were in captivity in Syria.
IS claimed responsibility for the Paris, Beirut and Sinai atrocities and they are widely believed to have been behind the Ankara attacks. Last Wednesday, 32 people were killed in a bomb attack in north-eastern Nigeria, carried out by Boko Haram, which has pledged allegiance to IS.
Vast areas of territories are controlled by IS in Iraq and Syria where they commit atrocities on a daily basis and where many of their international terrorist attacks are planned. The jihadist group is also active in Libya, Afghanistan, Yemen and Tunisia – where last June it killed 38 people, many of them tourists.
And last Friday a group linked to al-Qaeda – which probably wants to show that it is still around – attacked a luxury hotel in Bamako, the capital of Mali killing at least 19 people.
It is clear, therefore, that we are now living through a new phase of jihadist terrorism which has become a huge global security threat, especially for Europe. What will happen if the terrorists manage to get their hands on chemical, biological or even nuclear weapons? I have no doubt at all that they would use them against European or American cities.
The response to the Paris attacks of the French people and their leaders, especially President François Hollande and Prime Minister Manuel Valls, has been dignified but firm. Both Hollande and Valls vowed to respond ferociously to IS’s latest atrocities – French airstrikes against IS in Syria resumed immediately after the bombings – but they made it clear that France will not become inward-looking, will not give in to populist sentiment, will retain its way of life and will still welcome Syria refuges on its soil.
What we must not do is to resort to simplistic populist solutions
How should the international community respond to this IS threat? A complete re-evaluation of strategy is certainly in order but what we must not do is to resort to simplistic populist solutions such as banning refugees or turning against Muslim communities which would not only be wrong but counterproductive.
IS’s aim is precisely to stir up resentment towards Muslims in Europe and the US and to cause strife between Muslims and non-Muslims. They want Muslims to feel they have no choice but to support the jihadists and we must not fall into their trap of equating Islam and refugees with terrorism. Europe must stick to its values and resist the populist rhetoric emerging from certain right-wing political parties.
The fight against terrorism will certainly require more powers to be granted to the police and intelligence agencies; the EU’s external border controls to be substantially tightened; the increased sharing of intelligence and passenger data; the prevention of the social media being used by the terrorists; and the beefing up of cyber security.
What is also needed is a comprehensive evaluation of why certain Muslims in Europe, especially in countries like France, Britain and Belgium, are attracted to jihadism and have joined IS in Syria. The Paris attackers were French and Belgian nationals (reports that one of the terrorists was a Syrian refugee have not been confirmed) and the mastermind behind the attacks – who was killed in a police raid last Thursday – was also Belgian. The integration policies of certain EU countries also need reviewing.
On the other hand, Muslim community leaders, Muslim clerics and leaders of Muslim countries must acknowledge that Islam is going through a dangerous phase. They have to duty to speak out against such acts of terrorism and to emphasise that IS certainly does not represent Islam. Some have done so already, but more condemnation is needed, especially by countries like Saudi Arabia, which also needs to clamp down on its rich donors who are believed to be funding IS, and on certain Wahhabi clerics who fan the flames of hatred and jihadism.
On the diplomatic front I hope the Paris attacks will now create new alliances and a fresh approach to the Syrian conflict, which has dragged on for far too long and which has caused so much grief and mayhem. Although in the long run it is very doubtful whether Syrian President Bashar al-Assad can have a role in the future of his country (at least not the unitary State of Syria as it is today) the priority in Syria is a political settlement and the battle against IS. There needs to be genuine co-operation between countries such as the US, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Turkey aimed at resolving the crisis in Syria and battling IS.
Those involved in fighting IS in Syria and Iraq will have to consider the increased use of Special Forces on the ground. The American and Russian airstrikes, as well as the inroads made by the Kurds, have put IS under pressure, but more needs to be done.
The international powers, and this includes Russia, should co-ordinate their military action in Syria, the US and EU should increase their military training and support for the Iraqi army and the Kurds, and the Iraqi government must be pressured into embarking on a genuine programme of political reform to empower the Sunni minority and thus remove a basis of support for IS.