The horrific attacks that took place in Paris last Friday night shook the world, not for the first time in recent memory. At the time of writing, around 130 civilians were killed, and twice that injured. Eight attackers were killed, although it is yet unclear as to whether others may have escaped. Yesterday, reports on various social media outlets pointed to Islamic State taking responsibility for the attacks, although these reports were not yet authenticated.

Many will ask why these attacks took place. One reason may be France’s involvement in the air campaign against IS in Iraq, and more recently, Syria. Its only aircraft carrier is currently en route to the region to further bolster its military presence there.

Paris had determined that its interests were best served by participating in the Western coalition against IS. But its participation, like that of other countries, was always going to carry the risk of blowback – its own citizens returning from the battlefields of Syria and Iraq, and using the knowledge acquired there to carry out attacks against their own countries. Some might argue this is reason enough to halt French (and indeed Western) operations in the region.

However, France’s participation in military operations in the Middle East should be taken in their proper context. In April, a US Congressional Research Service report estimated that some 4,000 to 5,000 Europeans were fighting for IS; French nationals made up some 1,200 (or upwards of 30 per cent) of the total.

Western intelligence agencies have been concerned that Europe was susceptible to European fighters returning to carry out attacks in their countries for some time.

An analysis of the attacks themselves would appear to lend credence to the theory that IS, or a similar group, was behind the attacks, given the sophistication required, the weaponry used, and the mix of suicide bombings and small arms assaults on civilian targets. Some similarities can be drawn to the 2008 attacks in Mumbai, which like Paris, saw jihadists opening fire on civilians in popular tourist areas.

However, while Mumbai did not suffer a repeat attack after 2008, Paris has suffered two terror attacks in 2015 alone. The attack on the offices of Charlie Hebdo, a satirical magazine, in January, left 17 people dead and a further 22 injured.

The fact that Friday’s attack was even possible poses a few uncomfortable questions for France

That event brought grief and outrage in France and beyond. However, the fact that Friday’s attack was even possible poses a few uncomfortable questions for France; and the answers to those questions may be just as uncomfortable.

Were those responsible for the attacks ‘home-grown’, in other words, French nationals? Were they non-EU citizens who snuck under the radar of French intelligence agencies? The answer to these questions will have a considerable impact on French policy on their operations in Syria and Iraq or within the EU, if not both.

President François Hollande, whose approval rating last September was around 20 per cent, gave a strong and noteworthy speech in the aftermath of the attacks. However, the fact that French security forces and its intelligence agencies were not able to prevent a second such attack in 2015 is a failure which may well come to rest on his shoulders.

The next presidential elections in France are in 2017, just over 12 months away. Mr Hollande may find it even more difficult to fend off his political adversaries – former president Nicolas Sarkozy, and Marie Le Pen, of the centre-right and far right, respectively.

His policies for the remainder of his presidential term will set the tone for France’s participation in military operations in the Middle East, and where France will stand in relation to potential changes to Schengen Area rules in light of the migration crisis.

France stands at a crossroads with wide-ranging implications: will it increase its intelligence surveillance at the cost of personal liberty? Will it strengthen its operational presence in the Middle East? Will it call for enhanced security checks within the Schengen Area?

The answers to these questions will determine France’s sense of identity and position of power within the EU and the international stage.

Matthew Bugeja is a geopolitical consultant and visiting assistant lecturer with the University of Malta’s Department of International Relations.

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