The graduation season is with us. Hundreds of University and Mcast graduates must be in seventh heaven after having received official confirmation of their educational achievement after years of hard work. Now the real world of work awaits them as they try to make their dreams of employment a reality.
There was a time when a tertiary education guaranteed you a well-paid secure job and respect in society. The traditional professions – lawyers, doctors, architects and engineers – often looked forward to a hectic but well rewarded lifestyle. The baby-boomers who made it to the higher levels of the labour market now fret about whether their children – now labelled as Generation Y – will emulate their success by finding well-rewarded jobs that combine high status with generous salaries.
But the reality that young people of today and tomorrow face is that the future of work is becoming increasingly complex. Good jobs no longer depend on the level of educational achievement gained through years of studying. Massive socio-economic changes are altering the landscape and no one really has the ability to predict with any degree of certainly what the jobs of the future will entail.
I remember quite distinctly that 20 years ago, futuristic analysts were predicting that today’s labour market would be characterised by radically reduced working hours and increased leisure time. The economic bonanza of the nineties would be sustained indefinitely through improved technology that would make the life of most people that much easier. The economic crisis of 2008 accelerated the shattering of this dream.
I know of no in-depth local research that has tried to identify the trends that are likely to affect the Maltese jobs market in the next two decades. So once again I have to rely on foreign studies as a good starting point for a discussion on how we can start preparing ourselves for the likely disruptive changes that will affect the future of our younger generations.
The UK Commission for Employment and Skills carried out detailed research on the likely developments in the UK job market, the results of which were published in a report entitled The Future of Work – Jobs and Skills in 2030. The trends shaping the future of UK, and indeed most Western economies, jobs market are various.
Good jobs no longer depend on the level of educational achievement gained through years of studying
There is no doubt that the characteristics of our society are changing. Income uncertainty, demographic changes, desire for work-life balance, growing diversity, and changing work environments are just a few of the social changes that young people have to face today in their search for a job.
On the business and economic fronts the changes are no less impressive. The digitalisation of production, globalisation, and growing scarcity of resources make the creation of new jobs a very different economic process from that of two or three decades ago. The growth of globalisation has shifted the centre of gravity of economic activity from Western democracies to Asia and to a lesser extent to South America.
Many believe that this trend is irreversible.
The UK study mentioned earlier found that “two-thirds of British investment bankers expect that in 2022 the top global finance centres will be in Asia”. The automation of professional tasks will have an undoubted effect on the jobs that many middle class families depend on: “Robotics, smart algorithms and artificial intelligence could automate more than 40 per cent of jobs in the US within two decades”. No wonder that middle class families fret about the future of their children.
While automation hollows out professional work, ferocious competition for low-skilled roles will create social tensions as governments will have fewer tools to meet the expectations of younger people who have failed to achieve much in their years of educational formation.
As technological innovation drives the automation of white collar work and brings large-scale job losses it is vital that educational and business policy makers promote ‘skills activism’.
Employers will focus on attracting, developing and retaining world class talent. This is not a painless exercise as it will reward the higher achievers but increase the gap in the great divide that is already distancing the ‘haves’ from the ‘have-nots’ in our society.
Rather than wait for research opportunities to be created by the State, as some of today’s graduates seem to want, tomorrow’s employees need to shoulder more responsibility for skills development. Personal agility, resilience, and ability to adapt to change will be important assets to possess in tomorrow’s job market.
johncassarwhite@yahoo.com