Tony Abela and David Vassallo will be in ‘pole position’ should they contest the upcoming casual election to fill the parliamentary seat vacated by former Nationalist Cabinet minister Joe Cassar.
Hermann Schiavone, an expert on electoral systems, said the assumption that Dr Abela and Mr Vassallo would enjoy an advantage was based on an analysis of the votes transferred to Dr Cassar in the 2013 election once both of them had been eliminated.
The casual election involves the opening of sealed packages of Dr Cassar’s 4,075 votes, held at the Electoral Commission’s strong room. The votes will then be distributed according to the preferences indicated and the same elimination process followed in the general election will apply.
In the 2013 election, 449 of Mr Vassallo’s votes were transferred to Dr Cassar, compared to Dr Abela’s 993.
However, 402 of Dr Abela’s votes were not included in Dr Cassar’s package when he was elected in the 15th count, because these were above the quota set.
It may penalise those who fared well in the general election but were not eliminated
Thus, Dr Abela and Mr Vassallo will probably start the race with about 400 votes each if they decide to run.
The quota will be set at 2,038. Within this scenario, two factors play a determining role: the transfer of Dr Cassar’s 998 first preference votes and the third preference of the 1,111 voters who gave the number one to former PN leader Lawrence Gonzi and then to Dr Cassar.
These votes amount to 2,109, or 71 votes above the quota.
Both Dr Abela and Mr Vassallo stand to gain from geographical advantages, in that they hail from Rabat and Dingli, the areas where Dr Cassar enjoyed substantial support. Another factor in their favour is that a potential key contender, Peter Micallef, does not stand much to gain from the transfer of votes.
“This scenario confirms one of the single transferable vote system’s anomalies in that, in the event of a casual election, it may penalise those who fared well in the general election but were not eliminated,” Dr Schiavone said.
Dr Micallef would not benefit from the votes that could have been transferred to Dr Cassar while Dr Abela and Mr Vassallo would benefit from all transferred votes when Dr Cassar’s packages are opened and shared among the candidates standing for the casual election. Malta, Australia and Ireland are the only countries in the world that use the single transferable vote in general elections.
However only Malta and Australia adopt a casual election regime. When a vacancy arises in the Irish Parliament, a by-election is held. This entails an exercise whereby the electorate votes again rather than electing the new candidate on the basis of the votes cast in the previous general election. An argument in favour of the bye-election option is that the electorate’s views at the time might be different to those prevalent when the general election was held, Dr Schiavone noted.
Co-option is another method provided by Maltese law to fill an empty parliamentary seat. This mechanism is adopted when no candidates stand for a casual election. The last co-opted MP was Prime Minister Joseph Muscat following the resignation of Joseph Cuschieri.
The General Elections Act stipulates that in the event of a co-option, MPs should consider “the interests and opinions represented and held by the vacating member” in their choice.