One of my first mentors once told me that financial markets will always have a key event to focus on, which event (its build up, outcome and aftermath) will result in a bout of market volatility and hence trading opportunities. And this summer was no exception, with the Greek saga, Chinese currency devaluation and equity market slump and lack of trading activity on the whole all providing their fair share of volatility.

This week’s FOMC meeting is yet another key event which has been highly anticipated, with the timing of the Fed’s first rate hike at the pinnacle of market, analyst and trader chatter. At the beginning of the year, markets had taken the notion of a June 2015 rate hike as a certainty, and we all know how that ended – Grexit fears and heightened market volatility had propelled FOMC members to take a wider stance on global economic fears and postponed a rate hike.

Will this time be any different? Clearly, the volatility witnessed over the summer months as a result of a correction in Chinese equities, slump in commodity prices as well as currency devaluation by the Chinese central banks have once again got Fed officials pondering as to when the opportune moment is to actually hike rates first. China can no longer be seen in isolation and the implication of a slowdown in China (soft landing or hard landing) must not be underestimated, and these are clearly key considerations FOMC members will be taken into account.

Undoubtedly, the US economy has had its fair share of robustness evidenced by the positive economic data and what seemingly has been a sustainable (but rather slow for US standards) economic recovery. So the sanity and health of the US economy will also weigh on FOMC members. But what investors want to know at this stage is what the markets are pricing (whether it is a September 2015, December 2015 or early 2016 rate hike) and whether there are any pockets of value in the markets to take advantage of. Polls seem to be sending mixed signals making market participants even more cautious on where and how to position themselves.

The worries of deflationary pressures from China on one hand and the recent improvement in unemployment data in the US (0.2 per cent drop to 5.1 per cent) on the other are expected to play a major role in Thursday’s decision and keep investors on edge.

Although I would not expect the FOMC to hike rates this week, markets seem to have shrugged off the importance of the timing of the first rate hike but are putting greater emphasis on the magnitude and timing of the subsequent increases and the effects that they could have on the wider global economy. Many analysts argue that it would be a relief to have the uncertainty (of the first rate hike) behind us, with the focus eventually shifting on the implications of a possible widespread global economic slowdown.

Disclaimer:

This article was issued by Mark Vella, Investment Manager at Calamatta Cuschieri. For more information visit, www.cc.com.mt .The information, views and opinions provided in this article are being provided solely for educational and informational purposes and should not be construed as investment advice, advice concerning particular investments or investment decisions, or tax or legal advice. Calamatta Cuschieri & Co. Ltd has not verified and consequently neither warrants the accuracy nor the veracity of any information, views or opinions appearing on this website.