Carbon dioxide emissions from global tourism could increase by more than 300 per cent by the end of the century, research suggests.
The study found the majority of the predicted increase in greenhouse gases associated with tourism between 2010 and 2100 was down to transport, such as flying to foreign destinations.
Associate professor Paul Peeters, of NHTV Breda University of Applied Sciences in the Netherlands, warned the impact of growing tourism-related emissions could not be solved just by more efficient technology or by cutting carbon in other sectors.
Peeters said there was “no silver bullet” to tackle the issue.
He suggested the world could carry on flying as much as at present, but the flights would have to be redistributed so more people in developing economies could fly, which would mean fewer flights by richer nations.
It would also mean a wholesale shift to electric vehicles and public transport for other journeys.
Or people could continue to drive cars but air travel would have to be reduced to 1970s levels, which would still allow tourists to fly everywhere in the world, but not as frequently, so flying would be the exception rather than habitual in Western countries.
“We can still keep the growth in the number of trips, we don’t have to say 'you can't have a holiday', but the destinations will be different or the transport methods will be different,” he said.
He told the Royal Geographical Society's annual conference in Exeter that the projected growth in tourism emissions needed to be considered against goals of reducing global greenhouse gas output by around 80 per cent by the end of the century.
“Our findings suggest that emissions resulting from tourism will outstrip global sustainability goals by a considerable margin.
“It's vital that we consider – and model – a wide range of policy options to mitigate the growth of global tourism-related emissions.”
Accommodation accounted for around a fifth (20 per cent) of tourism-related emissions, which could rise to around 25 per cent in the future if people take more luxurious accommodation such as hotels rather than camping.
But as zero-carbon buildings are already in existence, tackling emissions from buildings including hotels and other tourist accommodation is much less of a problem than aviation, he said.
His findings are based on the Global Tourism Transport Model, which allows researchers to model the long-term impacts of different policies on carbon emissions related to tourism, assessing the development of tourism from 1900 up to 2100.