The Libyan political agreement initialed in Skhirat, Morocco, on July 11 and brokered by UN envoy Bernardino León sent a message of hope to a shattered country.
Libya is a country with many heavily armed militias, two competing governments and parliaments, in addition to extremist groups controlling a number of towns and areas, the most deadly of which is the notorious IS, or Daesh, to use the Arabic acronym. This group has committed many atrocities, the latest of which was the macabre slaughter in Sirte.
Against such a complicated background, the agreement in Morocco was by no means a small achievement. But the march to peace is far from over. The General National Congress did not join the signatories and is raising objections and reservations. Nonetheless, the door was left ajar in Morocco for the boycotting parties to join after the holy feast marking the end of Ramadan.
In a gesture of goodwill, the GNC did participate in the latest round of talks in Geneva. It is anticipated they will also go to Skherat for a hopefully decisive round of talks that will pave the way for the formation of the long-awaited government of national accord.
The accord reached in Morocco, though not perfect, may be Libya’s last chance to evolve into statehood after a violent and armed revolution, which ousted a brutal dictator, but left many wounds behind. Indeed the price for liberating the country from the previous regime was extremely high. Many Libyans lost their lives, properties and homes. Many were maimed for life. Many have been driven abroad, causing a significant increase in the number of the internally displaced persons. According to the UN High Commission for Refugees, there are currently an estimated 434,000 internally displaced Libyans. National security and health services have deteriorated in many parts of the country.
The Libyan economy, once one of the strongest in Africa with a high GDP and annual growth, has suffered considerable setbacks because of the current turmoil. According to the IMF, Libyan GDP fell from $82 billion in 2012 to $41.2 billion in 2014. This resulted in a decrease in the per capita annual income from $12,800 in 2012 to $6,600 in 2014. Libya’s foreign currency reserves are also on the decline. Moreover, Libya’s oil exports fell to less than half a million barrels last year and the first few months of this year.
The country’s economic woes are further exacerbated by the occupation by IS of areas in the Gulf of Sirte (Libya’s strategic oil crescent), drawing dangerously close to oil fields and ports. Fighting between the Tobruk government forces and extremists in Benghazi and Derna is still going on, claiming many civilian casualties totaling, according to the Libyan NGO, Libya Body Count, 1,700 people since the beginning of 2014.
If Libya fails, the Mediterranean will become our ‘sea of troubles’ and the price paid will be drastically high
Benghazi is devastated. The forces of Fajr Libya have earnestly tried to push back IS elements from Sirte, but eventually had to retreat. General Khalifa Hafter’s forces are in disarray, lacking in ammunition and command. Human traffickers, benefiting from the security vacuum, are still active on the western shores of Libya, sending thousands of desperate immigrants to a bleak destiny towards Europe in boats of death.
Instability in Libya is sending shock waves all over the region. Recent terrorist attacks by Tunisian terrorists in Bardo and Sousse, leaving dozens of innocent people killed, have caused panicking Tunisian authorities to take desperate measures, envisaging the building of a soil fence to isolate Tunisian borders from infiltrations by terrorists claimed to be receiving training in Libya.
Libya’s northern neighbours, chiefly Malta, Italy and, to some extent, France and Germany, are no less frantic about the perils Libya could cause for their own security. As no fences can be built on the sea, the use of naval force is being envisaged.
As bleak and surrealistic the picture painted above may be, there remains a glimmer of hope in the Skhirat agreement. Generally speaking, most of the Libyan parties to the conflict realise that only through national reconciliation and the establishment of a strong national unity government can there be hope for Libya to evolve into a truly democratic country, based on the principles of inclusion, rule of law, separation of powers, empowerment of women and respect for human rights.
The transitional year indicated in the agreement will enable the country to finish drafting the constitution, and ultimately hold new legislative and presidential elections. The international community, led by the UN, has a moral obligation to safeguard this process of state-building.
Nato intervened in Libya, with a UN mandate, and eventually was pivotal in the downfall of Muammar Gaddafi. In doing so, some of Libya’s vital infrastructure was destroyed. Western forces cannot, therefore, be just spectators as the country they helped liberate descends into chaos.
Those elements who continue to oppose peace in Libya should face consequences for their attitude. The UN can, and hopefully will impose sanctions on those who obstruct the peace process, regardless of their political or tribal allegiances.
Most Libyans are decent, peace-loving people. They want their country to be an oasis of peace. They resent all forms of extremism. They suffered under the totalitarianism of the previous regime and they deserve better. Stability in Libya will mean dividends for Africa and Europe. The Libyan economy has the potential to recover fast, once peace prevails. Libya has the biggest proven oil reserves in the Middle East and North Africa, second only to Saudi Arabia. Trade will flourish and foreign companies will flock back.
New modern airports can be built, enabling Libya to be an intercontinental transit hub, particularly between Europe and Africa. The health, education, agriculture and construction sectors will prosper. Tourism and the hotel industry can also see a boom. New modern hotels can be built all over the country, rich in Phoenician, Roman and Greek heritage. The lusciously sandy beaches along the Gulf of Sirte can attract those seeking sea and desert tourism. A prosperous, stable and moderate Libya will absorb considerable numbers of immigrants from sub-Saharan Africa, easing the burden on Europe and drying the sources of the merchants of death.
The recent political agreement has to succeed. It is incumbent upon Libyans, the UN, the EU, the US and the entire international community to help Libya evolve soon. If Libya fails, the Mediterranean will become our ‘sea of troubles’ and the price paid will be drastically high, not only for Libyans, but for the entire region.
Saadun Suayeh is a former Libyan ambassador to Malta.