In the past two weeks there has been extensive coverage in social media saying that Saif Islam, son of the former Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi, has a role in Libya’s future. That message picked up traction and surprised the Dawn militias.
A few days ago, the Tripoli Court of Assize sentenced him and eight other Gaddafi-era figures to death in a mass trial of 37 of that era’s leaders and functionaries.
This dramatic news signals that there is more to the story than is being told in media circles.
The UN Support Mission in Libya stated: “During their pre-trial detention defendants were denied access to lawyers and family for prolonged periods, and some reported that they were beaten or otherwise ill-treated, but UNSMIL is not aware of any investigation into these allegations.”
The Hague wants Gaddafi-era figures, especially Saif Islam, to be tried in front of the international tribunal. Gaddafi’s son, in particular, faces charges at the International Criminal Court (ICC) for brutal reprisals against protesters during the 2011 revolution. The ICC knows that Tripoli orchestrated a kangaroo court.
Let’s be clear: The Tripoli court is under the control of not only the Islamist General National Congress (GNC) but also the Libya Dawn militia, with its nefarious links to ex-Al Qaeda members and the Islamic State. This is not a court in any proper, legitimate sense but represents a Stalinist-type judiciary hell bent on flouting international legal norms. To make matters worse, Libya Dawn is in control of the correctional facility system. It is a Gulag Tripolitania.
Even the Libyan Supreme Court (LSC), which will hear the mass trial results, is subjected to intimidation and threats in order to garner favourable rulings to the Tripoli gang of extremist malcontents. We saw this already with the illegal LSC finding by force over the legitimacy of the democratically elected, internationally recognised House of Representatives in Tobruk.
Clearly, Tripoli’s move is one of panic over power and money. First, the legal proceedings, like other GNC trials and legal rulings, are meant to wipe out the tribal matrix that is now supporting the parliament in Tobruk and in some cases a return of some role for Saif in the new Libya.
The Zintanis, with their martial prowess, have been holding Saif Islam since his arrest. Since 2011, the Zintani approach was to protect him in justly because outside of their area, Gaddafi’s prominent son would certainly be kidnapped or killed, especially if handed over to Libya Dawn in Tripoli.
The Tripoli court is under the control of not only the Islamist General National Congress but also the Libya Dawn militia
Now, the Zintanis are coming to agreements with other local groups such as the Zuwarah, that irk Tripoli and are clearly aligned with Tobruk. In addition, the arming of the Warfalla and Tebu tribes is paying off against Tripoli along with the Misratans.
These alignments frighten Tripoli because Libyan Dawn are without a doubt losing their grip in the local tribal milieu.
Second, the Tripoli Court of Assize’s death sentence is meant to send a message about who owns what regarding Libya’s Gaddafi-era financial holdings overseas. The GNC wants and needs these assets because the Libyan Investment Authority, the Central Bank of Libya, and the Libyan Post, Telecommunication and Information Technology Company (LPTIC) reside in Tobruk’s hands.
The message is clear: The Tripoli Court of Assize thinks that wiping out the previous regime through their warped legal system will open the assets up to them. They are dead wrong.
Third, Tripoli is shooting itself in the foot on the energy front. Libya Dawn and Islamic State attacks on Es Sider, Ras Lanuf, the Al-Mabruk field and oil assets in Sabratha are killing outside investment. The GNC-Islamist extremist nexus is wiping out the oil industry for itself or, more insidiously, is handing it over to ISIS which seeks to incorporate onshore Libyan oil assets into its mercantilist portfolio.
It is no coincidence that BP and Total are writing off their Libyan losses. Eni SpA and Repsol SA are likely to follow suit.
With the Tripoli Court of Assize finding, these financial factors are now affecting the diplomatic and political negotiations, the thoroughly discredited Skhirat Process, being led by the UN’s Special Envoy to Libya, Bernardino Leon, to find a settlement before the October 2015 elections.
That’s why the GNC failed to sign on to a new transitional regional government: No money, no honey. So now they have blood lust.
It should be noted that there are over $50 billion dollars in unfrozen assets which are up for grabs in Africa alone. Doesn’t Tripoli understand that these monies are tied to the health and well-being of some former Gaddafi era officials?
To this day, right or wrong, African countries look up to what Saif Islam’s father achieved for them and are more than willing to help a new Libya if the conditions are right.
The reality is, without military assistance from an Arab Coalition and/or a Nato attack, extremists Libyans led by ISIS will continue to prosper in the first instance from the huge profits they make from their management of illegal immigration which has huge consequences for ‘the front line States’ of Europe, one of which is Malta.
Europe cannot afford to wait for the creation of a Libyan “unity government” because that isn’t going to happen any time soon.
Richard Galustian is a security analyst.