On the game of football, the coach does the half time talk and, according to the result, adjusts the team to face the opponent in the second part of the game. In political terms, the summer season is football’s half time.
In the hot season, our parliamentarians replace their suits and ties with T shirts, shorts and flip-flops. Like everyone else they deserve some time off. This period, however, serves not only as a break from the daily routine for the political class but also as a time to analyse one’s performance in the first six months of the year and adjust the strategy for the second half. This year’s summer also marks the half way line of this legislature.
One way of analysing a party’s performance is by comparing opinion polls held in the beginning and end of a particular period.
In the first six months of this year, Malta Today conducted two, identical opinion polls, one in January and the latest in June. The one published in January was held a few weeks after former Cabinet minister Emanuel Mallia’s saga and eventual sacking. At the time, the Prime Minister was 15 points ahead of Simon Busuttil in the trust ratings.
The Labour Party, on the other hand, was nine points ahead of the Nationalist Party.
These are the figures generally making headlines. But opinion polls are rich in information and generally offer much more than meets the eye. The January poll, for instanc,e established that the Opposition leader had an 11 point lead over the Prime Minister in the trust rate of graduates.
It also confirmed the downward trend of Muscat’s approval rating. Still, overall, Labour remained more popular than the PN.
The political season of 2015 kicked off with the Café Premier matter. Since then, a number of other hot issues emerged and the media was never left dry with stories of nepotism and abuse from various ministries.
The PN ought to use the half time wisely to prepare the strategy for the second part
The Żonqor Point storm took centre stage for a while until the Mark Gaffarena story grabbed the headlines. In between, controversial stories erupted every other day.
In April, the spring hunting referendum and local council elections were held. As expected, the PL won the elections but the PN made considerable gains, most notably in the south.
However, in Gozo, the party in Opposition did not register any improvement. As a result, the PN’s hardworking general secretary, Chris Said, had to be sacrificed to take up a new role in his constituency. Rosette Thake, a relatively newcomer in the PN, replaced him. The latest opinion poll, published on the first day of summer, offered good news to the PN. Muscat’s lead in the trust rate has once again decreased, this time by another two points to its lowest level since the general election. The gap between the parties is also down to five points from nine, six months ago.
As with the January poll, there are other signs of the PN’s revival.
The gap in the trust rate of graduates is now at an all-time high of 23 points in Busuttil’s favour. Furthermore, Muscat’s approval rating remains in constant decline.
The best news for the PN comes in the form of the switchers’ voting intentions. In January, 45.5 per cent of those who voted Labour in 2013, most of whom for the first time, indicated that they will vote again Labour if an election was held the next day. This figure is now down to 37.3 per cent.
On the other hand, the percentage of switchers who declared their intention to vote PN in the event of an election now stands at 33.3 per cent, up from from 12.1 per cent in January. This means that the number of switchers now intending to vote PN has trebled since the beginning of the year.
Those who said they will not vote or do not know who they will vote for is down to 24.9 per cent from 32.3 per cent.
These figures suggest that the PN is making very good inroads with switchers.
There is still however a quarter of switchers who are still not comfortable returning back to the PN despite being dissapointed by Muscat’s government. This is understandable.
The Labour Party has only been in power for two-and-a-half-years. Still, the fact that half way down the line so many switchers have already deserted the party in government is good news for Busuttil.
This section of the electorate must be addressed by the PN in the coming months.
The road for the PN remains uphill. Despite all the inroads the party in Opposition has made in the first six months of the year, the party in government is still ahead.
The second half of 2015 is expected to be very interesting. Busuttil has laid the foundations for a strong PN comeback.
Like the game of football, the PN ought to use the half time wisely to prepare the strategy for the second part.
Hermann Schiavone is a political and elections analyst.