Ministers from 24 countries forming part of the anti-Islamic State coalition met in Paris last Monday and Tuesday in the aftermath of worrying major losses to the jihadist movement in both Syria (Palmyra) and Iraq (Ramadi).
Although US Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken told the French media that more than 10,000 Islamic State fighters have been killed since the international coalition began its campaign in Iraq and Syria, IS seems to have gained momentum lately. It now controls 50 per cent of Syrian territory, which is very bad news, and although it has lost close to 30 per cent of territory it once occupied in Iraq, the taking of Ramadi exposed the poor leadership and demoralised state of the Iraqi army.
General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff, remarked recently that Iraq’s security forces were not “driven from” Ramadi, they “drove out of Ramadi”. Furthermore, IS is still managing to attract recruits from both the Muslim world and Europe, and its access to finance, even though somewhat curtailed, has not been eliminated.
No important decisions were taken in Paris. Certainly no major change was embraced by the ministers, who seemed content to carry on with the same strategy, even though Islamic State’s recent advances have shocked and taken most observers by surprise.
It would not have been a bad idea, for example, had some of the coalition members offered to send some of their special forces to take part in limited operations to fight IS in Iraq, as there is only so much that can be achieved through air strikes. It would also have been useful had countries like Saudi Arabia (which itself has suffered three IS terrorist attacks on its Shi’ite minority over the past six months) announced new measures to curb the flow of jihadists to both Syria and Iraq.
Additionally, it would have also been useful had countries like the US, UK and France announced that they were going to send more trainers for the Iraqi army.
At the Paris meeting, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi appealed for more help, stressing that Islamic State is stronger, better equipped and more organised than ever before. Al-Abadi complained that the coalition’s air campaign (led principally by the US) was “not enough”, and that Iraq needed both more intelligence and arms from its friends. He also pleaded for Iraq to be exempt from the international arms sanctions on Iran and Russia so that his country could buy weapons from these countries.
Shortly after the Paris meeting the US announced it was to send 2,000 AT 4 missiles for use against armoured suicide truck bombs which weakened and demoralised Iraqi government forces in Ramadi. France too, is to provide similar weapons. This is good, and providing the Iraqi military with more arms and carrying on with air strikes will play an important role in the war against IS, but it is not enough.
Islamic State now controls 50 per cent of Syrian territory
For one thing, a political strategy that makes the Sunnis in Iraq feel that their Shi’ite-led government truly represents them is absolutely crucial. Many Western ministers at the Paris meeting in fact stressed that IS in Iraq could never be defeated unless the country’s Sunnis are on board and fight with the Iraqi army, which is Shi’ite dominated. “There is no military solution without a political solution,” French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said.
Iraq has, in fact, become increasingly reliant on Iranian-backed Shi’ite militias (as well as Lebanon’s Hizbollah) to take on IS in recent months, and although this strategy is an important component of the war it risks alienating the Sunni population of Iraq. Sadly, some members of these Shi’ite militias are suspected of having carried out atrocities against Sunnis in the past, so it hardly makes them their natural allies.
It is also very irritating that although Washington spent over $40 billion training and arming Iraq’s military after it disbanded the army of Saddam Hussein – the most stupid and ridiculous thing the US did after it overthrew the dictator – this proved almost useless as the previous Iraqi government led by Shi’ite Nouri al-Maliki was so sectarian and corrupt that Sunnis were almost totally excluded from positions of authority in the army. Experienced Sunni officers (those who didn’t join the insurgency) were sidelined while inexperienced Shi’ites were promoted to senior positions.
Al-Abadi, Iraq’s new Prime Minister, has promised to be more inclusive, and has talked about arming the Sunni tribes in the Anbar province (of which Ramadi is the capital) to fight IS. This has not yet happened, and the sooner it does the better. The war against IS in Iraq will never be won until the Sunnis’ grievances are taken into account, until discrimination against Sunnis ends and until the Sunnis feel that they are on the same side as their Shi’ite-led government in this battle against the jihadists.
The situation in Syria is even more complex and I believe much more can be done, on a diplomatic level, to try and bring about some sort of political settlement (a partial one at least). The regime of Bashar al-Assad is battling for survival against Islamic State, which controls half the country, as well as other Islamist groups, such as al-Nusra (affiliated to al-Qaeda) and the moderate Syrian Opposition. Assad has proved to be a ruthless dictator and there is no doubt at all that his regime has committed (and continues to commit) horrendous war crimes. In the long-term there can be no future role for him to play in Syria.
Assad is backed by Iran, Hizbollah and Russia, which have unfortunately proved reluctant to exert pressure on him to show some flexibility and go for a political solution, even though at this late stage it is doubtful whether this is at all possible. Russia, Iran and Syria were absent from the meeting in Paris – it was definitely a mistake not to invite Moscow and Teheran to this conference.
I hope that Russia and Iran are eventually invited to be part of this coalition and that some sort of dialogue can be opened with the Assad regime, however brutal it has proven to be.
The problem with Syria is that you have a lot of different players who are fighting IS but who don’t talk to each other. Until there is a more co-ordinated approach to the war against IS, which includes all players who have an interest in destroying this group, the jihadists will not be defeated.
This war requires patience, determination and also some new strategies. US General John Allen, Washington’s special envoy for the anti-IS coalition, said last week that it will take a generation or more to defeat IS in Iraq and Syria.
“Defeating Daesh’s (IS) ideology will likely take a generation or more. But we can and we must rise to this challenge,” he said. Indeed the world should, before the situation really gets out of control.