Italian champions Juventus have emerged as favourites to knock out Spanish giants Real Madrid and reach their eighth European Cup final – their first after a 12-year wait. Incidentally, the last time Juventus progressed to the final was in 2002/03 when they ousted the Spanish giants 4-3 on aggregate.
If Juve succeed tonight, they will become the first Serie A outfit to reach the final of UEFA’s premier club competition since Inter beat Bayern Munich 2-0 at the Santiago Bernabeu Stadium in May 2010.
The different state of mind and physical form of the two teams enter tonight’s Champions League semi-final return leg in the Spanish capital, induces one to label Juve as favourites to reach the June 6 final in Berlin.
On Saturday, Juventus rested several players as they celebrated their fourth straight Scudetto in a low-key 1-1 home draw with relegation battlers Cagliari.
By contrast, Carlo Ancelotti’s side practically bowed out of the Spanish La Liga title race after coming from two goals down to share the spoils with Valencia at their own Bernabeu Stadium.
The result left the Los Blancos four points adrift of leaders Barcelona with just two games to go.
Juventus have been in top form since the Champions League resumed after the winter break.
Massimiliano Allegri’s side have not only ousted Borussia Dortmund and Monaco, recording three wins and a draw in the process, but on the domestic front they have also retained the Serie A title with four games to spare and reached their 15th Coppa Italia final – their first since 2011/12.
These achievements become even more significant for Juve considering that they had to do without the services of their midfield talisman Paul Pogba in the most crucial phase of the campaign.
The Frenchman, after almost two months sidelined through injury, made his return for the ‘Old Lady’ on Saturday as he broke the deadlock with a 45th minute strike against Cagliari.
While Allegri can again count on midfield dynamo Pogba, the same cannot be said of Ancelotti is still without midfielders Luka Modric and Sami Khedira.
In particular, the Croat’s ability to link up with the strikers has been sorely missed by the 32-times Spanish champions. No wonder that Real Madrid’s upturn in form in March almost coincided exactly with Modric’s return from an injury he had sustained towards the end of last year.
Juventus, having let in just 12 goals in 24 away fixtures this season, have a better defensive away record than in home games
At least, tonight, Ancelotti, who had a trophy-less spell with Juventus between 1999 and 2001, is expected to welcome back in the side German World Cup-winning midfielder Toni Kroos, who limped off after only 25 minutes on Saturday, and striker Karim Benzema, who missed last week’s defeat in Turin.
Ancelotti is vying to become the first coach to win the Champions League a record fourth time after helping Real Madrid win La Decima last season and his triumphs with Milan in 2002/03 and 2006/07.
History is also on Juve’s side.
The two-times European champions have won the first leg of a Euro club competition tie 2-1 on four occasions… and they have always progressed, the last time being against Borussia Dortmund in the last 16 this season (2-1, 3-0).
Against Monaco, Juventus played a rather defensive game and eventually settled for a goalless draw to progress to the semi-finals 1-0 on aggregate.
On that occasion, such a ploy worked wonders for Juve but against Real Madrid, who are much stronger in attack than in defence, Juventus would commit a serious mistake if they were to play a containing game.
Juventus, having let in just 12 goals in 24 away fixtures this season, have a better defensive away record than in home games.
Also, Allegri’s men have kept clean sheets in their last three away Champions League fixtures (vs Malmo 2-0, Borussia Dortmund 3-0 and Monaco 0-0).
The other side of the coin is that Real Madrid have found the back of the net at least once in each of their most recent 52 home fixtures.
The last side to come out of the Santiago Bernabeu Stadium with a clean sheet were city neighbours Atletico Madrid in September 2013.
Also, over four years have elapsed since the last time the Merengues failed to score in a home Champions League fixture – 0-2 against Barcelona in April 2011. Since then, Real Madrid have scored at least once in each of the 23 Euro cup games played at home.
Tonight, Juventus need to be on top of their game to make their dream come true.
If they succeed, they would prove wrong maybe once and for all, those who doubted Juve’s European credentials including their former coach Antonio Conte.