Voters in the UK head to the polls today to choose their government and possibly redefine Britain’s relationship with the rest of Europe.

With Conservative leader David Cameron pledging to renegotiate the UK’s standing inside the EU, and after that hold an in-out referendum by 2017 if elected to government, the result will be closely watched in Brussels.

Labour MEP Miriam Dalli says talk of a UK exit from the EU is doing the rounds in Brussels and some are considering the election result as “a Brexit barometer”.

However, having been in London this week to support the UK Labour Party’s campaign, she says Britain’s relationship with the EU is not one of the top concerns for most voters.

“The Britons I met were more interested in speaking about taxes, wages and the national health service,” Dr Dalli says.

However, she does acknowledge that this may completely change after the result is known, in what has turned out to be the most uncertain of general elections in recent history.

The Conservatives and Labour have been neck and neck throughout the campaign. Either of the two mainstream parties will win the largest number of seats but not enough to govern on their own. They will need to form coalitions and this may lead to days, if not weeks, of discussions.

Whatever the final result may be, this election is destined to unleash a lot of post-election excitement and speculation

Mr Cameron has already pencilled in the EU referendum as one of his red lines for any government he will form and although the Liberal Democrats – his coalition partners for the past five years – are opposed to Britain’s exit from the EU it is unlikely they will block the referendum if in coalition with the Conservatives.

What a Brexit would mean in real terms is too early to quantify, according to Dr Dalli. “This [election] result has to be looked at in its own right – the British people choosing their government. A referendum result will give the ultimate answer [on whether the UK will remain inside the EU].”

But with the UK considered to be one of “the big four”, its governance and political stability are a matter of interest for its EU partners, according to Roderick Pace, head of the Institute for European Studies at the University of Malta.

Prof. Pace believes Mr Cameron’s stand is also a strategic ploy in such a tight race that helps the Conservatives attract Eurosceptic voters from Ukip (UK Independence Party).

Surveys have consistently put Ukip’s support at about 14 per cent, making it the third largest party after the Conservatives and Labour. However, what power they will wield in a new Parliament is uncertain because Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system is likely to penalise Ukip.

The Eurosceptic party led by Nigel Farage may end up with two or three seats despite its good showing.

Prof. Pace believes Ukip’s post-election influence will depend on its electoral performance and how the relative strengths of the parties emerge after the poll.

“There seems to be no easy exit from this political mess… but what happens next boils down to what coalition will form the next government. Whatever the final result may be, this election is destined to unleash a lot of post-election excitement and speculation.”

Prof. Pace says it is hard to predict how Mr Cameron’s pledge to negotiate a new deal with the EU will play out. It also depends on whether other EU member states will negotiate such a deal, he adds.

“They [member states] are under no obligation to do so and the whole affair may drag on for some time, further increasing uncertainty about the UK in Europe,” Prof. Pace says.

Should Labour win, he feels, the issue of Britain’s relationship with the EU will remain hanging because the Eurosceptics are unlikely to give up easily.

A Labour victory, or a Labour-led coalition, will be under no obligation to hold an EU referendum and Brussels bureaucrats may be relieved, even if the matter is simply postponed to another time.

Nationalist MEP Roberta Metsola says everyone in Brussels is watching how the election in the UK unfolds.

“This is something the people of the UK must decide for themselves and I, for one, will certainly not tell them what to do.”

She believes the EU without the UK would represent a “huge loss” to both but ack­nowledges there are “very real concerns” with how certain aspects of the EU function.

“We need to see how best to address those concerns, to make the EU ever more efficient and relevant for everyone without touching the fundamental principles and building blocks of our Union,” she says.

It is no wonder Europe waits with bated breath because the UK election result could very well mean that addressing the concerns could become a very urgent matter as from tomorrow.

How does Britain vote?

The UK is divided into hundreds of constituencies with each delivering one seat to Parliament. It is the result in each constituency that determines how many seats a political party has in the next Parliament.

People vote for their preferred candidate in the constituency they live and the seat is awarded to the candidate polling the highest number of votes. This is called first-past-the-post, where the winner takes all.

This system is a disadvantage for third parties like Ukip and the Liberal Democrats because although they may garner a significant number of votes nationwide – Ukip could very well hit 14 per cent – they would have to ensure their candidates obtain the highest number of votes in the individual constituencies to get elected.

Despite posting gains across the board, Ukip candidates are only likely to get in front in two or three constituencies.

On the opposite side of this equation is the regional Scottish National Party. Given that it will only present candidates in Scottish constituencies, its nationwide vote is relatively insignificant.

However, SNP candidates are likely to win in almost all Scottish constituencies giving the party more than 50 seats in Parliament. This would make the SNP the third largest party in the House and a serious contender for any Labour-led coalition.

Why are Maltese allowed to vote?

Generally speaking, only people with British or Irish citizenship can vote in general elections in the UK and EU citizens residing in the country can vote in local and European elections.

However, due to their close historical ties, citizens of 54 Commonwealth countries, including Malta, can register to vote in general elections if they are living in the UK, even if reciprocal rights are not offered to British citizens.

It does not mean there are no critics. A report last year by campaign group Migration Watch UK found that nearly one million Commonwealth citizens could “significantly influence” the result of the election and said the practice “should be brought to an end immediately”.

The UK government, however, has repeatedly taken the view that the voting rights of Commonwealth citizens should not be changed.

kurt.sansone@timesofmalta.com