Britain votes on Thursday in one of the most exciting elections ever, with no party likely to win an overall parliamentary majority and with non-mainstream parties likely to take a large slice of the popular vote. This election is a crucial one because it could determine the UK’s future relationship with the EU as well as its future as a united country.
The latest average poll of polls shows the two main parties neck and neck with the Conservatives led by Prime Minister David Cameron on 33.9 per cent and Labour led by Ed Miliband on 33 per cent, followed by Ukip on 12.9 per cent, the Liberal Democrats on 8.1 per cent and the Greens on 5.5 per cent. The rest of the popular vote will be split between the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish nationalist parties as well as the Ulster Unionists.
The projected seat allocation, however, paints a different picture to the popular vote, although no one party will get an overall majority. The Conservatives are projected to get 273 seats, Labour 269, the Scottish Nationalists 55 (a massive gain of 49 seats), the Liberal Democrats 28 (a loss of 29 seats), Ukip three, the Greens one and other parties 21.
As can be seen by these projections, Britain’s first past the post electoral system very much favours the larger parties or those parties whose support is concentrated in particular constituencies.
The Scottish Nationalists, for example, are expected to win 55 of Scotland’s 59 seats (one poll says they could even win all the seats), even though their share of the popular vote is estimated at about 4.5 per cent throughout the UK and 54 per cent in Scotland.
Ukip and the Greens, on the other hand, who are predicted to get 12.9 per cent and 5.5 per cent of the popular vote, are only expected to get three seats and one seat respectively, simply because their support is thinly spread throughout the UK.
These seats projections very clearly point to another hung Parliament in Britain, so the outcome is going to be either another coalition government or a minority government which will be propped up by one or more of the smaller parties. If the projections are accurate, another Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition will not be possible because the two parties together will be short of the required 326 seats to form an overall majority.
Even if the Liberal Democrats do better than expected, as party leader Nick Clegg has constantly claimed, it is doubtful that they will win enough seats to form a majority with the Conservatives. Neither it is likely that a Conservative-Liberal Democrat minority coalition government will be able to form a parliamentary majority with the support of Ukip and the Ulster Unionists.
Such an alliance is anyway very unlikely as Mr Clegg has already ruled out forming part of a government which relies on Ukip for parliamentary support.
Labour, on the other hand, will probably come very close to securing a majority in Parliament with the Scottish Nationalists. The two parties’ projected strength is 324 seats, just two short of an overall majority, and Labour could probably then rely on the backing of the Welsh Nationalists and Northern Irish Social Democrats.
Non-mainstream parties are likely to take a large slice of the popular vote
Mr Miliband, however, has ruled out a coalition with the Scottish Nationalists, but not a parliamentary pact.
Nevertheless, a minority Labour government depending on the Scottish and other Nationalists for support would look very weak, and would only enjoy a wafer-thin majority. A Labour Liberal Democrat minority coalition government supported by the Scottish Nationalists, on the other hand, would enjoy a parliamentary bloc of 352 seats, but even this has been ruled out by Mr Clegg.
Speaking to the Financial Times, the Liberal Democrat leader and Deputy Prime Minister said: “I totally rule out any arrangements with the SNP in the same way I rule out any arrangements with Ukip – because there is no meeting point for me with one party that basically wants to pull our country to bits and another party that wants us to pull out of the EU.”
The main issue in this election is the economy, but the NHS, immigration and Britain’s future in the European Union are high on voters’ agenda. The Conservatives are mainly running on their record of economic growth, job creation, deficit and debt reduction (mixed results), as well as their (risky) pledge to renegotiate some terms of Britain’s EU membership and then hold an in/out referendum.
David Cameron is more popular than his party, and if the polls are correct the Conservatives will reduce their share of the vote they received at the 2010 election, mainly because of a surge in popularity of the right-wing Ukip, which has taken advantage of people’s concerns about immigration and the EU.
Labour, on the other hand, is arguing that people’s living standards have decreased over the past five years, mainly due to the austerity measures and a lack of investment in public services.
Ed Miliband is less popular than his party but the polls show Labour increasing its popular vote by about four percentage points since its poor result in 2010 when it received only 29 per cent of the vote.
Labour has promised to invest more in the NHS, to bring down the deficit in a fairer way and has accused the Conservatives of secretly planning massive spending cuts, including on benefits, if re-elected. Labour has lost a lot of support in Scotland, however, which explains the surge of the Scottish Nationalists.
The Liberal Democrats are expected to lose half their seats in this election, the price they will pay for governing in coalition with the Conservatives and for agreeing to the huge increase in university fees.
However, the Liberal Democrats have without doubt been a moderate influence in the governing coalition and had it not been for them, the Conservatives would have carried out harsher austerity measures and adopted even more of a eurosceptic stand.
In this election, Clegg has positioned himself between the Tories and Labour, hinting he will be willing to join in a coalition with either (if the numbers are there) and would prevent each from lurching to the right or left.
What is the most likely outcome of this election? If the polls are correct, and barring any late surge in support for either the Conservatives or the Liberal Democrats, we could see Miliband in Downing Street leading a minority Labour government and relying on parliamentary support from the Scottish Nationalists and other smaller anti-austerity parties.
In such a scenario, how long would it take for the SNP to demand another referendum on Scottish independence, thus putting at risk the future of the UK as a unitary State?