Local planners have long forecast that Malta may be on the brink of national gridlock. As long as car ownership continues to rise, our road infrastructures will not be able to keep up with the demand.
In many developing countries, more money is being poured into motorways in a vain attempt to out-build the growing traffic jams. Speaking at the opening of a conference on urban transport last week, Transport Minister Joe Mizzi said that priority must be given to those who make the best use of road space and are environmentally sustainable. The conference was hosted by the University of Malta’s Institute for Climate Change and Sustainable Development (ICCSD).
At the conference on climate change targets and urban transport policy it emerged that congestion was often the main driver of change or modal shift rather than any urge to meet pressing UN climate targets.
One theory suggests that motor vehicle distance travelled per capita, predominantly by car, has peaked and is set to fall in a sustained manner. The peak car theory is certainly true for London, where capital investment for roads has been shifted into improving railways.
A researcher, engineer and former chief scientist at the UK Department of Transport, Prof. David Metz of University College London (UCL), defined a medium density city as functioning well if the share of journeys made by car (rather than by public transport) are kept below a 30 per cent threshold, avoiding serious traffic congestion. Controlling parking has been found to be more effective than congestion charges.
Keynote speaker Deb Niemeier from the University of California, warned that transportation in the US was out of synch with California’s ambitious target of 80 per cent reduction on 1990 levels of carbon dioxide by 2050. The apparent feel-good factor that comes with state-of-the-art modelling and computer projections of what can be achieved, need to be compared with what is really happening around transport and growth in some US cities.
What low-carbon futures are possible for cities? This was a question raised by Robin Hickman from UCL’s Bartlett School of Planning, who looked at Delhi, Jinan, London and Auckland. Despite a 1930s prediction that there would have to be a drop in cars by the 21st century, car use in most cities is still going up.
“Some cities are reducing marginally but none are seeing the targets we would like. There is a large gap between policymakers and the car-owning public.” Dr Hickman spoke of a “hyper-reality”, in which aspirations to own a car were fuelled by car advertising and a heavily mediated “real” which did not look at the environmental impacts.
Researchers estimate that the world transport fleet will reach two billion motor vehicles by 2030, with cars representing at least half of all vehicles. How will this affect society and how can we get better at enabling changed behaviour? “People need to be able to choose their future transport goals, ideally within targets.”
The climate change implications of air traffic congestion at major European airports was the subject of a presentation by aviation research engineer Daniel Irvine of Loughborough University.
Technology to reduce emissions from aviation is always improving but this is outdone by the increase in flights
Air travel is responsible for three per cent of global emissions and the demand for more flights is always growing. Yet expansion of runways at first seems incompatible with a response to climate change. Irvine argues that building more runways to meet demand could help reduce greenhouse gases from aviation since it would reduce the need for aircraft to wait for a landing slot while circling in a holding pattern. A study on emissions generated by aircraft forced into holding while waiting to land found that this could cost the UK government over €23 million in carbon taxes by 2035.
Technology to reduce emissions from aviation is always improving but this is outdone by the increase in the number of flights. Delayed landings mean more emissions.
Another keynote speaker, Yoram Shiftan of Israel’s institute of technology, presented research on modelling travel behaviour where travel decisions are part of a broader activity scheduling process. These models are just one of many helpful elements in providing forecasts needed for major investments in transportation.
A paper on electric vehicles in the commercial sector looked at obstacles and opportunities for cost savings. The study arose after problems with commercial vehicles in a Danish town which caused higher levels of emissions. For most, the range was adequate and the majority did not plan trips which required using public recharging infrastructure.
Motor fuel taxes in certain countries have resulted in fuel tourism in border regions of Europe. An assessment of how taxation impacts transport behaviour and responses to climate change in the Czech Republic showed clear scope for international harmonisation.
Forecasting roadside pollutant levels in order to evaluate traffic management in Palermo’s Castelnuovo Square was the subject of a study seeking to support urban transport policies. The analysis of street canyons with traffic lights, where pollution can be expected to be high, is the project’s next step.
A poster exhibition put up at the conference by the University of Malta’s department of geography included the results of an unpublished dissertation on traffic flow scenarios in coastal areas prone to flooding as at St George’s Bay, Birżebbugia. The dissertation, entitled ‘An integrated approach for assessing vulnerability and consequences of sea level rise on the Maltese coast’ by E. Azzopardi, says high winds blowing sea spray and overall changes to sea level, including the frequency of seiches and storm surges, are among the factors contributing to coastal vulnerability. Proposals include identification of alternative traffic routes, bus stops and pedestrian pathways and signposting of areas that may be threatened by storm waves.
A University of Rome poster on display looked at the integration of a bus system into new urban scenarios and mobility challenges of an ageing population. Older people can be both contributors and casualties of climate change. They can also be potential campaigners to help tackle the problem.
The conference focused on planning and policy as part of a wider effort to bridge the gap between practitioners and researchers in the World Conference on Transport Research Society.
Speaking on national targets, Malta’s climate change ambassador to the UN, Dr Simone Borg said: “It’s going to be a challenge but we are all determined to make it and we haven’t a day to lose.”
A new publication on sustainable urban transport edited by ICCSD director Maria Attard and Prof. Yoram Shiftan brings together an international group of researchers on issues related to transport policy, attitudes and choices, car sharing, alternative modes of transport and the future of non-motorised modes of transport.