Leading members of Libya’s democratically-elected, internationally-recognised Parliament are in Washington DC for meetings with the US government, which started on Wednesday.
Almost simultaneously over the past week, there have been coordinated visits by Khalifa Haftar to Jordan to meet King Abdullah and Prime Minister Abdullah al-Thinni to Moscow to meet Russia’s top leadership. This is no coincidence.
The visits to Jordan and Russia are potentially game changers for Libya.
Back in Washington, the calibre of the visiting Libyan delegation has taken some US officials by surprise. Most of the visitors represent the cream of the parliamentarians and are some of the heads of the various key committees within the Libyan Parliament, like those dealing with foreign affairs, defence and national security, oil and finance.
US Administration sources have stated, off the record, they have been impressed with the parliamentarians.
Elsewhere, Haftar continues to strengthen ties with Jordan by meeting the King who reaffirmed his country’s assistance to the legitimate Libyan government for, among other things, special operations and additional training.
Al-Thinni is seeking Russia’s support, hence his meetings with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and, it can only be surmised, a guarantee of a steady arms flow from Moscow, probably via Egypt and Jordan.
That Abdullah is a key player in the official Libya-Russia nexus is indisputable. Amman is not only a key interlocutor with Moscow on the Isis file in the Levant but is also trying to ‘mould’ a genuine moderate Muslim Brotherhood wing, whose adherents can serve as collaborators in a future Libyan coalition government.
That Jordan is in the process of a ‘remodelling’ of their country’s Muslim Brotherhood leadership into a possible governmental coalition party looks very significant as a counterweight to the US and UK courtship of more extremist leadership throughout the region.
The visits to Jordan and Russia are potentially game changers for Libya
Many Arab states are upset with both Washington and London because, for them, the Muslin Brotherhood today is a wolf in sheep’s clothing. Clearly, Amman is in the midst of a grand, new vision that questions the current conventional wisdom not only of the US and the UK but also challengers Turkey and Qatar.
Those two countries, especially Qatar, need to be singled out in this melodrama of epic magnitude.
We must understand clearly that Doha has bought into reporters, pundits, think tanks and universities, one way or another, and effectively controls the Libyan pro-Muslim Brotherhood narrative in Western journalism, especially in the US.
Significantly, Jordan, by creating such a ‘State-sponsored Muslim Brotherhood’, is perhaps introducing the concept to the Libyans as an alternative to the Turkish-Qatari model.
It could be argued that, by doing this, those Muslim Brotherhood of the old guard, with hidden violent extremist agendas, will be marginalised wherever they are and, especially, those attempting to cling on to power in Tripoli.
Ironically, Isis in Libya is helping call a spade a spade.
These recent events, in Moscow, Amman and now Washington represent a moment of truth for the West; for the United Nations Security Council as well as its failed arms embargo.
UN Special Representative Bernardino Leon gave an ambiguous, to put it mildly, press conference on Wednesday in Morocco where he said it may take weeks before any agreement can be reached. That’s because there will not be one: Al-Thinni, Haftar and their supporters probably see first a military solution in sight, followed by a political one. Many Dawn leaders are already fleeing to Turkey as they read the writing on the wall.
To boot, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are agreeing with the al-Thinni government to buy oil directly from Libya to make that government and its House of Representatives more powerful, which will economically result in Tripoli’s Dawn’s eventual submission. That’s called economic warfare and is acceptable to save Libya in order to avoid a complete meltdown.
The US needs to give the Libyan House of Representatives what it needs – breathing space – and stop the love affair with the General National Congress and the Dawn coalition, which is corrupted by violent extremists, with Turkey and Qatar behind them.
In Tripoli, where nearly two million people live, money circulation is running out and, soon, hyperinflation will cause food and fuel imports to soar.
It’s time that Washington finally gets on the right side of history before it loses Libya altogether.
Richard Galustian is a security analyst