Persuading people to use their cars less – mostly by shifting to public transport – would save the country €132.5 million a year by 2030, according to a study conducted for the European Commission office in Malta.

The University of Malta study, co-authored by Maria Attard and Frank Bezzina, looked at the external cost of road transport, which means looking at ‘intangible’ costs like pollution, and the impact of accidents on people’s lives.

This required complex economic modelling but the authors came up with staggering figures, which show­ed that the external cost of traffic was €273 million in 2012, the equivalent of four per cent of GDP.

The costs were calculated for five different aspects: accidents (€83.9m), air pollution (€14.3m), climate change (€46.8m), noise (€11m) and congestion (€117.9m). The study looked into various aspects such as medical costs and the loss in productivity when people are injured, as well as the ‘cost’ of annoyance and impact on health of noise – which exceeds the recommended limit around the clock in the north harbour area. The highest cost was due to congestion, which looked at the ‘cost’ of time lost for both employees and employers, as well as the fuel spent in traffic jams. Only cars and light commercial vehicles were taken into consideration.

However, the situation is set to get worse as more and more cars are put on the roads. The external cost would reach €317 million in 2020 and €322 million by 2030.

However, economist Philip Von Brockdorff explained that the study also looked at the outcome given some policy changes.

One of these was to increase the efficiency and use of public transport, resulting in a shift of 20 per cent. This would have the greatest impact, bringing the €322 million forecast for 2030 down to €189.5 million.

However, other policy changes did not have nearly the same impact. Increasing the number of electric cars hardly made a dent in the figures, probably because the uptake of these cars was not forecast to result in more than a fraction of the total number of cars on the road.

Another oft-suggested solution – reducing by half trips relating to school – was also surprisingly ineffective, with no change in external costs between now and 2030, although it would also mean they would not rise by €49 million.

“Is congestion tax an option?” Prof. Von Brockdorff asked, adding that he did not see this in the foreseeable future.

He presented the results during a seminar organised by EY during which its forecasts for the eurozone and Malta were explained.

The study will be published on the European Commission site.