Joseph Muscat has ditched the underdog label for the upcoming local elections and with good reason.

The last time elections were held in this round of localities his party won 57 per cent of the vote.

Instead, Dr Muscat has been asking voters to give the Labour Party a majority of votes, “no matter how small it is”.

The likelihood is he will obtain more than what he is asking for, even though Dr Muscat has insisted these elections are a mid-term test when governments are normally at the lower end of the popularity stakes.

Labour enters the elections with a majority of councillors in 19 localities. This may change depending on the outcome of vote transfers in three hotly-contested localities: Mosta, St Paul’s Bay and Qala (see box).

But in voter percentage terms, which will give the political parties a snapshot of their strength in half of the country, the Labour Party starts the race well ahead of the Nationalist Party.

In 2012, the PL obtained more than 60,000 votes across all localities (excluding Sliema, where no election is being held now), outstripping the PN by more than 17,000 votes.

The result not only reflected the predominance of Labour-leaning localities but also a general shift towards the party that was replicated in the general election a year later.

Surveys conducted by Malta Today have consistently put Labour ahead of the PN over the past few months and Dr Muscat still enjoys a healthy advantage over Simon Busuttil in trust ratings.

Labour enters the elections with a majority of councillors in 19 localities

There is nothing to suggest that Labour could register a significant dip in popularity on April 11 unless any mid-term disgruntlement is reflected in voter abstention.

The result could, however, have greater significance for the PN, particularly its leader. After the drubbing in last year’s European Parliament election, Dr Busuttil will be looking to recover some lost ground. The PN will not be hoping for a majority of votes given the Labour slant in this round but how far it manages to cut the gap will have a bearing on Dr Busuttil’s ability to start turning things around.

In 2012, the PN obtained just under 43,000 votes in all localities, which put its support at 41 per cent.

It enjoyed a majority of councillors in 14 localities, including Mosta, where the PN had 14 fewer votes than Labour on the first count.

Winning a majority in the battleground localities will not be enough for party strategists. They will have their eyes set on the number of votes the PN will secure because this is the single most important statistic when assessing the party’s strength.

However, there may be a snag in drawing direct comparisons between the April 11 vote and the results of 2012.

The voter base has not only increased through natural growth of those who turn 18 but also as a result of legal changes that make it possible for 16- and 17-year-olds to vote in local elections.

This will be the first time 16- and 17-year-olds will vote and there are 4,600 of them in this round of local elections.

They make up just over two per cent of eligible voters and, although the numbers may seem relatively small, this cohort of voters can represent uncharted territory for the political parties.

Local elections 2015

Elections in: 34 localities
Registered voters: 197,682
Increase in voters over 2012: 20,223
16- and 17-year-old voters: 4,600
Councils with PL majority: 19
Councils with PN majority: 14
Councils with no majority: 1

The battleground councils

Three councils will see the two major parties going head-to-head in a dead heat battle for a majority of seats. But the straightforward contest may get complicated with the participation of Alternattiva Demokratika. Kurt Sansone reports.

Mosta

With 17,433 registered voters and a majority of PN councillors, this locality will again be the battleground it was three years ago.

In 2012, only 14 votes separated the two major parties on the first count, with Labour enjoying the edge. In voter percentage terms, none of the two parties obtained an absolute majority as AD and an independent candidate held the balance of power when they polled more than three per cent of the vote.

However, the vote transfer mechanism saw the PN clinch the last seat to give it six councillors against Labour’s five. The PN had regained a council it lost in previous years.

This time around, AD will not be contesting this council, making this a two-horse race. Much will depend on how the 242 voters who gave their first preference to AD last time around and the 90 voters who chose the independent candidate vote.

The PN will try and keep Mosta in its fold but winning back this central locality will be a big catch for Labour.

The PN will see the return of former MP Edwin Vassallo to his roots – he was once Mosta mayor before getting elected to Parliament. It will also field former Labour councillor and TV presenter Ivan Bartolo.

St Paul’s Bay

This locality with 21,200 registered voters is the second largest after Birkirkara and will be electing 13 councillors this time.

Labour won a majority for the first time in 2012 having obtained 514 votes more than the PN on the first count. AD had polled 134 votes.

Labour will try to retain its majority but the result will very much depend on the demographic changes that this seaside locality has experienced over the past three years. St Paul’s Bay is one of the fastest growing localities.

Labour will field former Nationalist mayor Paul Bugeja while the PN sees newcomer and popular radio host David Thake vying for a seat on the council.

AD will again contest with one candidate while two independents have submitted their candidacy. AD has never elected a councillor in St Paul’s Bay and the performance of its candidate may have a bearing on the outcome of the result for the two major parties.

Qala

This Gozitan locality with 2,143 registered voters was a prize catch for the PL three years ago when it won a majority there for the first time.

The two major parties were separated by a mere seven votes on the first count with Labour keeping the advantage until the end and electing three councillors against the PN’s two.

Labour will once again field Clint Camilleri, who failed to make it to the European Parliament last year by a whisker.

But the almost even split seen three years ago is likely to be upset by AD candidate David Camilleri. Although it is unlikely he will get elected, his votes could influence the final outcome.

kurt.sansone@timesofmalta.com

Pie charts based on percentage of votes won by each party in the 2012 elections.