As Libya descends further into chaos, the international pressure on the two sides in the country’s conflict – the ‘governments’ of Tobruk (which is internationally recognised) and Tripoli – to compromise and reach an agreement has greatly intensified, with the possibility of some sort of international intervention on the cards if no deal is made.
Unfortunately, as Italy and Malta have often predicted, the turmoil and political vacuum in the country has now led to the Islamic State establishing a foothold in Libya, which should be of great concern to the whole of Europe. Last Saturday’s barbaric execution of 21 Egyptian Christians by IS militants in Sirte served as a wake-up call to the international community to do something about Libya before the situation gets out of control and IS continues to gain ground.
Italy has made it clear that it is growing increasingly impatient with the lack of progress in talks between Libya’s different factions as well as Islamic State’s presence in the country. Rome is worried not only about the possibility of terrorist attacks in Italy, but also a mass exodus of migrants flooding its shores. Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has called for military intervention by a UN-led force and has said Italy would be willing to contribute troops to such a force.
Meanwhile, the official Libyan government based in Tobruk asked the UN Security Council last Wednesday to lift its arms embargo so that it can deal with Islamic State militants. Foreign Minister Mohammed al-Dairi said it would help the government build its army and deal with “rampant terrorism”. Egypt, which on Monday carried out airstrikes against Islamic State targets in Libya in retaliation for the murder of its 21 citizens, supported Libya’s request.
Prime Minister Joseph Muscat told Parliament last Tuesday that some sort of UN military intervention in Libya was necessary to re-establish security in the country as time was running out for the rival governments in Tripoli and Tobruk to form a national unity government. Last Thursday he told journalists, however, that diplomacy should be given another chance as UN special envoy for Libya Bernardino León had hinted that the situation was not completely hopeless.
Dr Muscat, nevertheless, made it clear that there was wide international support for some type of military intervention should diplomacy fail, and that Malta always preferred any military action to be sanctioned by the United Nations. He also said there was no international agreement yet on what type of military intervention should be carried out.
Just how serious is the threat of Islamic State in Libya? There are an estimated 1,000 to 3,000 fighters loyal to IS in Libya, many of whom have returned home with considerable front-line combat experience in Iraq and Syria. The militant group already controls the cities of Derna and Sirte and is present in Benghazi, where the Ansar al-Sharia jihadist group has pledged its loyalty to it. Islamic State is also believed to have carried out the recent attack on the Corinthia Hotel in Tripoli.
A failed Libyan state, in which the jihadists control vast areas of territory, threatens the whole of Europe
Like al-Qaeda, IS thrives on chaos, so the longer the stalemate persists in Libya, the stronger the militant group will grow. Furthermore, the growing violence could shut down the country’s oil production – which has already fallen from about 1.6 million barrels a day before the Arab Spring to less than 300,000 barrels a day today – which would deprive the two governments of much-needed revenue and really turn Libya into a failed State, creating the perfect conditions for the jihadists to thrive.
So there is no doubt that Islamic State does present a very real threat to Libya. It is also true, however, that Libya is different to Iraq and Syria in that it lacks a sectarian divide – Libyans are all Sunni Muslims – which removes that potential source of strife. Furthermore, IS does not control any oilfields in Libya which could finance its operations. And Libya is a massive nation with few densely populated areas, so taking control of the country is certainly not easy.
IS is nowhere as powerful in Libya as it is in Syria and Iraq, and it is important that action is taken now before it is allowed to grow. A political agreement between Tripoli and Tobruk is obviously the ideal solution, one that would allow the country to unite (like it did during the revolution which ousted Muammar Gaddafi) against the threat of IS.
Any international military intervention, under the auspices of the UN, would require the support of both sides in the conflict; otherwise foreign forces would not know who they are meant to be fighting. Although the unilateral action by Egypt (airstrikes) so far might have downgraded IS’s capability somewhat, President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s treatment of Islamists at home (the Muslim Brotherhood, not jihadist terrorists) does not make Cairo an honest broker in the Libyan conflict, and is obviously looked upon with suspicion by the Islamist-leaning government in Tripoli. Sisi, however, is right when he says that IS in Libya presents a security threat to Egypt, and Cairo without doubt has to be part of the solution to this crisis.
It is also very clear that the United States is not in favour of a military intervention in Libya at the present time, and still believes a political solution is possible. This perhaps explains why countries like Italy and Egypt toned down their initial rhetoric about the immediate need for an international military intervention. However, if no political solution is reached quite soon and IS continues to take more territory, the international community will have no choice but to intervene militarily, ideally through a UN mandate.
A failed Libyan state, in which the jihadists control vast areas of territory, threatens the whole of Europe and is a direct threat to the security and economy of both Malta and Italy. Besides the threat of terrorism, a Libya in complete turmoil would create a mass exodus of refugees and migrants, with obvious consequences. Let us hope it doesn’t come to this and that intense international pressure on both Libyan governments will lead to some common sense and a much-needed peace deal.